EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook
Oct-23 05:25
- RES 4: 1.1040 High Oct 4
- RES 3: 1.0983 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0939 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.0874 High Oct 17
- PRICE: 1.0806 @ 06:22 BST Oct 23
- SUP 1: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.0746 76.4% retracement of the Apr - Sep bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0710 Low Jul 2
- SUP 4: 1.0666 Low Jun 26
A bear cycle in EURUSD remains in play and the latest sell-off reinforces this theme. Sights are on 1.0778, the Aug 1 low and the next key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen the downtrend and open 1.0746, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a downtrend. Initial firm resistance is at 1.0939 the 20-day EMA. Gains would be considered corrective.
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LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Time UK)
Sep-23 05:23
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 23-Sep | 0930 | Sep | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 23-Sep | 1100 | Sep | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 25-Sep | 0001 | Aug | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 25-Sep | 0900 | BOE's Greene Speech on Consumption | |
| 27-Sep | 1100 | Sep | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 30-Sep | 0700 | Q2 | GDP Second Estimate |
| 30-Sep | 0700 | Q2 | Quarterly current account balance |
| 30-Sep | 0930 | Aug | BOE M4 / Lending to Individuals |
| 30-Sep | 2110 | BOE's Greene on 'Perspectives on global MonPol' | |
| 01-Oct | 0001 | Sep | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 01-Oct | 0930 | Sep | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 01-Oct | 1500 | BOE's Pill at Confederation of British Industry Econ Growth | |
| 03-Oct | 0930 | Sep | BOE's Decision Maker Panel |
| 04-Oct | 0930 | Sep | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 04-Oct | 1410 | ECB's Elderson Speech at Change in Leadership event | |
| 08-Oct | 0001 | Sep | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 11-Oct | 0700 | Aug | UK Monthly GDP |
| 11-Oct | 0700 | Aug | Trade/ Services / Production / Construction |
US TSYS: Futures Weaker, No Cash Trading Due To Japan Holiday
Sep-23 05:21
TYZ4 is trading at 114-20, -0-07 from NY closing levels.
- There has been no cash trading for US tsys in today's Asia-Pac session due to a holiday in Japan.
- Newsflow has also been light so far today, leaving Asia-Pac market participants to digest Friday’s conflicting Fedspeak.
- Fed Governor Bowman (voter) issued a statement on Friday explaining why she dissented against the FOMC’s decision to cut the Fed Funds target range by 50bps last Wednesday. Her comments were in contrast to Governor Waller’s remarks in a CNBC interview, which were concerned with risks of inflation undershooting.
- Projected rate cuts into early 2025 bounced off early session lows on Friday, with the latest vs. late Thursday levels (*) as follows: Nov'24 cumulative -37.8bp (-35.9bp), Dec'24 -75.0bp (-72.4bp), Jan'25 -108.5bp (-106.5bp).
- Looking ahead to today’s US calendar, we will see more Fedspeak from Bostic, Goolsbee and Kashkari, alongside data including flash PMI data from S&P Global.
LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Sep-23 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 23-Sep | 745 | EU | ECB's Elderson at Real Estate summit |
| 23-Sep | 815 | FR | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 23-Sep | 830 | DE | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 23-Sep | 900 | EU | S&P Global Flash PMI (p) |
| 23-Sep | 1400 | EU | ECB's Cipollone statement on digital euro at Hearing |
| 23-Sep | 1630 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in discussion at House of the euros |
| 24-Sep | 900 | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 24-Sep | 1400 | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 25-Sep | 745 | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 25-Sep | 800 | ES | PPI |
| 25-Sep | 1400 | EU | MNI Connect Video on ‘EU & Global Trade Challenges’ |
| 26-Sep | 700 | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 26-Sep | 900 | EU | M3 |
| 26-Sep | 900 | IT | ISTAT Business / Consumer Confidence |
| 26-Sep | 1000 | EU | ECB's Elderson remarks at governance & risk meeting |
| 26-Sep | 1430 | EU | ECB Lagarde address at ESRB Conference |
| 26-Sep | 1515 | EU | ECB's De Guindos in macroprudential policy panel |
| 26-Sep | 1700 | EU | ECB's Schnabel at Wirtschaftsrat der CDU e.V |
