LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jul-04 05:18
Date Time Country Event
04-Jul 700 DE Manufacturing Orders
04-Jul 830 EU S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI
04-Jul 1000 EU ECB's Lane Lecture at University of Naples
04-Jul 1515 EU ECB's Cipollone at National Statistics conference
05-Jul 700 DE Industrial Production
05-Jul 745 FR Industrial Production / Foreign Trade
05-Jul 800 ES Industrial Production
05-Jul 800 EU The ECB Podcast - War, geopolitics and the economy
05-Jul 1000 EU Retail Sales
05-Jul 1000 IT Retail Sales
05-Jul 1315 EU ECB's Elderson in Panel at DiFoR Conference
05-Jul 1815 EU ECB's Lagarde speech at Les Rencontres Economiques
07-Jul FR Second round election
08-Jul 700 DE Trade Balance

Historical bullets

LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)

Jun-04 05:18
Date Time Country Event
04-Jun 855 DE Unemployment
05-Jun 745 FR Industrial Production
05-Jun 1000 EU PPI
06-Jun 700 DE Manufacturing Orders
06-Jun 800 ES Industrial Production
06-Jun 830 EU S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI
06-Jun 1000 EU Retail Sales
06-Jun 1000 IT Retail Sales
06-Jun 1315 EU ECB Deposit/ Main Refi/ Lending Rate
06-Jun 1345 EU ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference
06-Jun 315 EU ECB's Lagarde presents monpol decision on podcast
07-Jun 700 DE Trade Balance/ IP
07-Jun 745 FR Foreign Trade
07-Jun 900 EU ECB's Schnabel at the Federal Ministry of Finance
07-Jun 1000 EU GDP (final)/ Employment
07-Jun 315 EU ECB's Lagarde in Atelier Maurice Allais
10-Jun 900 IT Industrial Production
12-Jun 700 DE HICP (f)
13-Jun 800 ES HICP (f)
13-Jun 1000 EU Industrial Production

US TSYS: Treasury Futures Steady, Factory Orders Later Today

Jun-04 05:17
  • Treasury futures are little changed today after initially opening higher. TY now trade down - 02+ at 109-15+ after briefly trading above initial resistance of 109-19+ this morning.
  • looking at technical levels, treasury futures extended the recovery off last week’s 107-31 low (May 29) to trade through the 50-day EMA at 109-12, a break back above initial resistance of 109-19+ (June 3 highs) is needed to test 109-28 (May 17 highs).
  • Volumes: TU 28k, FV, 52k, TY 118k.
  • Cash treasury curve is little changed today, yields are about 1-2bp higher, the 2Y +1.4bp to 4.822%, the 10Y +2bp at 4.408%.
  • APAC rates: ACGB yields are 3-6bps lower, curve flatter. NZGB yields are 1-8bps lower, curve flatter. While JGB yields are 1-3.5bps lower, with the 10Y now 1.031% after strong 10y auction results.
  • Late year rate cut projections continue to gain following this morning's data: June 2024 at -1.3% w/ cumulative rate cut -.3bp at 5.328%, July'24 at -14% w/ cumulative at -3.8bp at 5.293%, Sep'24 cumulative -17.2bp (-14.7bp pre-data), Nov'24 cumulative -25.3bp (-21.7bp pre-data), Dec'24 -40.6bp (-35.5bp pre-data).
  • Looking ahead; Jolts, Factory, Durable Goods Orders

JGBS: Richer After A Solid 10Y Auction, Real & Labour Cash Earnings Tomorrow

Jun-04 05:12

JGB futures are holding post-10-year auction gains, +28 compared to settlement levels.

  • The 10-year JGB auction went well, with the low price beating wider expectations, the tail shortening and the cover ratio rising to 3.662x from 3.151x at May’s auction.
  • Today's outcome sets a more optimistic tone ahead of next week’s BoJ monetary policy decision for a market that has faced mounting pressure since mid-December due to expectations of policy tightening from the BoJ.
  • (Reuters) BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday the central bank's basic stance is to allow market forces to set long-term interest rates. But he said the central bank will conduct "nimble" market operations if long-term interest rates spike, signalling the BoJ's readiness to ramp up bond buying when necessary.
  • (MarketWatch) BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also reiterated that the central bank could make further adjustments to its monetary policy if inflation grows in line with its projections. (See link)
  • Cash JGBs are richer out to the 30-year, with the futures linked 7-year outperforming (4.0bps richer). The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.7bps lower at 1.042% versus the cycle high of 1.101% set last week.
  • Swaps are slightly richer, with rates ~1bp lower. Swap spreads are mostly wider.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Labor and Real Cash Earnings and Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI data.