LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jul-04 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 04-Jul | 700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 04-Jul | 830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 04-Jul | 1000 | EU | ECB's Lane Lecture at University of Naples |
| 04-Jul | 1515 | EU | ECB's Cipollone at National Statistics conference |
| 05-Jul | 700 | DE | Industrial Production |
| 05-Jul | 745 | FR | Industrial Production / Foreign Trade |
| 05-Jul | 800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 05-Jul | 800 | EU | The ECB Podcast - War, geopolitics and the economy |
| 05-Jul | 1000 | EU | Retail Sales |
| 05-Jul | 1000 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05-Jul | 1315 | EU | ECB's Elderson in Panel at DiFoR Conference |
| 05-Jul | 1815 | EU | ECB's Lagarde speech at Les Rencontres Economiques |
| 07-Jul | FR | Second round election | |
| 08-Jul | 700 | DE | Trade Balance |
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LOOK AHEAD: Eurozone Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
Jun-04 05:18
| Date | Time | Country | Event |
| 04-Jun | 855 | DE | Unemployment |
| 05-Jun | 745 | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05-Jun | 1000 | EU | PPI |
| 06-Jun | 700 | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06-Jun | 800 | ES | Industrial Production |
| 06-Jun | 830 | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06-Jun | 1000 | EU | Retail Sales |
| 06-Jun | 1000 | IT | Retail Sales |
| 06-Jun | 1315 | EU | ECB Deposit/ Main Refi/ Lending Rate |
| 06-Jun | 1345 | EU | ECB Monetary Policy Press Conference |
| 06-Jun | 315 | EU | ECB's Lagarde presents monpol decision on podcast |
| 07-Jun | 700 | DE | Trade Balance/ IP |
| 07-Jun | 745 | FR | Foreign Trade |
| 07-Jun | 900 | EU | ECB's Schnabel at the Federal Ministry of Finance |
| 07-Jun | 1000 | EU | GDP (final)/ Employment |
| 07-Jun | 315 | EU | ECB's Lagarde in Atelier Maurice Allais |
| 10-Jun | 900 | IT | Industrial Production |
| 12-Jun | 700 | DE | HICP (f) |
| 13-Jun | 800 | ES | HICP (f) |
| 13-Jun | 1000 | EU | Industrial Production |
US TSYS: Treasury Futures Steady, Factory Orders Later Today
Jun-04 05:17
- Treasury futures are little changed today after initially opening higher. TY now trade down - 02+ at 109-15+ after briefly trading above initial resistance of 109-19+ this morning.
- looking at technical levels, treasury futures extended the recovery off last week’s 107-31 low (May 29) to trade through the 50-day EMA at 109-12, a break back above initial resistance of 109-19+ (June 3 highs) is needed to test 109-28 (May 17 highs).
- Volumes: TU 28k, FV, 52k, TY 118k.
- Cash treasury curve is little changed today, yields are about 1-2bp higher, the 2Y +1.4bp to 4.822%, the 10Y +2bp at 4.408%.
- APAC rates: ACGB yields are 3-6bps lower, curve flatter. NZGB yields are 1-8bps lower, curve flatter. While JGB yields are 1-3.5bps lower, with the 10Y now 1.031% after strong 10y auction results.
- Late year rate cut projections continue to gain following this morning's data: June 2024 at -1.3% w/ cumulative rate cut -.3bp at 5.328%, July'24 at -14% w/ cumulative at -3.8bp at 5.293%, Sep'24 cumulative -17.2bp (-14.7bp pre-data), Nov'24 cumulative -25.3bp (-21.7bp pre-data), Dec'24 -40.6bp (-35.5bp pre-data).
- Looking ahead; Jolts, Factory, Durable Goods Orders
JGBS: Richer After A Solid 10Y Auction, Real & Labour Cash Earnings Tomorrow
Jun-04 05:12
JGB futures are holding post-10-year auction gains, +28 compared to settlement levels.
- The 10-year JGB auction went well, with the low price beating wider expectations, the tail shortening and the cover ratio rising to 3.662x from 3.151x at May’s auction.
- Today's outcome sets a more optimistic tone ahead of next week’s BoJ monetary policy decision for a market that has faced mounting pressure since mid-December due to expectations of policy tightening from the BoJ.
- (Reuters) BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday the central bank's basic stance is to allow market forces to set long-term interest rates. But he said the central bank will conduct "nimble" market operations if long-term interest rates spike, signalling the BoJ's readiness to ramp up bond buying when necessary.
- (MarketWatch) BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also reiterated that the central bank could make further adjustments to its monetary policy if inflation grows in line with its projections. (See link)
- Cash JGBs are richer out to the 30-year, with the futures linked 7-year outperforming (4.0bps richer). The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.7bps lower at 1.042% versus the cycle high of 1.101% set last week.
- Swaps are slightly richer, with rates ~1bp lower. Swap spreads are mostly wider.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Labor and Real Cash Earnings and Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI data.
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