EURIBOR OPTIONS: Outright call seller
Nov-06 10:41
0RH5 98.50c, sold at 5.5 in 5k.
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OAT: Block trade
Oct-07 10:40
OAT Block trade, suggest buyer:
- OATZ4 2k at 125.84.
STIR: Further Hawkish Post-Payrolls Adjustment
Oct-07 10:38
- Fed Funds implied rates have kicked higher again since Friday’s close in a combination of overseas reaction to the strong payrolls report plus sharp increase in oil futures.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.83% effective: 23bp Nov, 50bp Dec, 70bp Jan and 116bp June.
- The cumulative 50bp over the two meetings left this year is now consistent with the median FOMC dot from last month’s SEP.
- Three analysts in the minority who had been looking for a second 50bp cut in Nov have switched to 25bp cut calls (BofA, CIBC and JPM), but odds of a November ‘skip’ are still deemed low -- the MNI Employment Insight will follow a little later.
- There are multiple Fed speakers offering post-payrolls reaction today, tilted later in the session starting with Gov. Bowman at 1300ET (hawk, dissenter) before Kashkari (non-voter) at 1350ET, Bostic (’24) at 1800ET and then Musalem (’25) likely going into the most detail with a speech on the economy and policy at 1830ET.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Impulsive Rally Extends
Oct-07 10:38
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in consolidation mode. The trend condition is also unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2690.2 next, a 2.618 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. Firm support lies at $2612.1, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures are trading higher today as the pair extends the rally that started on Oct 1. The rally undermines a recent bearish theme and suggests potential for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on $77.40, the 76.4% retracement of the Jul 5 - Sep 10 bear leg. A break of this level would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch is $70.56, the 20-day EMA. First support is at $72.40, the Sep 24 high.
