HUF: EURHUF Pares Tuesday’s Decline as Markets Look Ahead to Jackson Hole
Sustained weakness across global equity indices is weighing on EM FX, while thinned liquidity amid t...
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GILTS: Early Rally Holds, Curve Flatter
Gilts remain underpinned alongside wider core global FI markets, with hawkish weekend tariff reporting centring on the U.S. & the EU seemingly underpinning the move.
- Futures have struggled to push meaningfully beyond Thursday’s high (91.53).
- Fresh extension higher would eye the 20-day EMA (91.99).
- Still, bears remain in technical control at this stage, next support seen at Friday’s low (91.08).
- Yields 2-4bp lower, curve flattens, akin to moves in global peers.
- 2s10s and 5s30s remain tethered to ~75bp and ~140bp, respectively, consolidating a little below their ’25 highs.
- 10s ~1.5bp wider vs. Bunds, spread back towards 200bp, having not closed above that level since mid-June.
- GBP STIRS still around levels that we outlined in our pre-gilt open comment, showing 48bp of BoE rate cuts through year-end, SONIA futures flat to +4.0.
- Little of note on the UK calendar today.
- Flash PMIs, public finances and retail sales data are due this week, while BoE Governor Bailey will testify on financial stability matters.
- More widely, UK focus remains on the fragile fiscal situation, with reports suggesting that Chancellor Reeves will continue to resist the idea of a wealth tax, as some Labour Party MPs continue to push for the policy move.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-25 | 4.000 | -21.7 |
Sep-25 | 3.963 | -25.4 |
Nov-25 | 3.806 | -41.1 |
Dec-25 | 3.739 | -47.9 |
Feb-26 | 3.624 | -59.3 |
Mar-26 | 3.599 | -61.9 |
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COMMODITIES: Bearish Tone in WTI Futures Intact, Recent Recovery Corrective
A bearish tone in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Jun 24 is considered corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.68. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. A bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to its recent gains - for now. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would expose $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. The bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. First support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
- WTI Crude down $0.27 or -0.4% at $67.07
- Natural Gas down $0.18 or -5.05% at $3.386
- Gold spot up $15.83 or +0.47% at $3365.75
- Copper up $4.05 or +0.72% at $564.5
- Silver up $0.29 or +0.77% at $38.4591
- Platinum up $24.94 or +1.74% at $1454.21
