EMISSIONS: EUAs Edge Down On EU Gas Losses
EUAs Dec25 are edging down on the day, with small losses in EU gas. Meanwhile, the correlation between EUAs-STOXX hit the lowest level since late March, suggesting the daily influence from equity market to carbon is now low as the focus has shifted back to energy complex.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.23% at 72.57 EUR/t CO2e
- TTF Gas JUN 25 down 0.2% at 36.56 EUR/MWh
- German Spark Spreads M1 up 0.1% at -13.81 EUR/MWh
- Rotterdam Coal JUN 25 down 0.7% at 97.9 USD/MT
- Estoxx 50 down 0.6% at 5424
- ICE EUA futures daily aggregate traded volume at 24,291 contracts in the previous day, down 24.11% compared with the 30-day average daily volume.
- Auction calendar for the day: The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear at 11:00CET. The previous EU auction cleared at 70.69 EUR/T at a 1.39 cover ratio.
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period remained at similar level at 0.55.
- Correlation between EUA/STOXX for 30-day period loosen to the lowest level since late March at 0.27.
- CWE wind forecast has been revised down over 26-28 May to be between 19-23% load factors, according to SpotRenewables.
- CWE peak solar forecast is anticipated to be the lowest on 25 May at just 27GW to rebound then at 46-47GW over 26-27 May, according to SpotRenewables.
- The latest month-ahead ECMWF weather forecast for NWE showed that the suggested mean temperatures is above average from 28 May.
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Historical bullets
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Signals Remain Bullish
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 163.55/164.19 High Apr 14 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 161.55 @ 07:32 GMT Apr 22
- SUP 1: 161.18/158.30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7 and key support
- SUP 2: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4
- SUP 4: 154.80 Low Low Feb 28
The recent pullback in EURJPY appears corrective - for now - and trend conditions remain bullish. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, the low on Apr 7. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
WTI TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: $75.51 - High Jan 15 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $72.56 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $66.22/71.76 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and key resistance
- RES 1: $64.49 Low Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
- PRICE: $62.88 @ 07:20 BST Apr 22
- SUP 1: $58.29/54.67 - Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $53.72 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $52.54 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
- SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.49, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
GOLD: Testing $3500.00
- It was only Thursday when Gold was looking at breaking above the $3300.00 level, it is now testing the $3500.00 handle.
- A clear break through would open to $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing.
- The Fed's independence and continued concern on the state of the US Economy has favoured the likes of Gold.
