EMISSIONS: EUA Prices Seen Trending Slightly Higher on Tightening 2026 Outlook
Oct-10 10:30
EUA prices are expected to edge higher as the market shifts focus to a tightening year-ahead supply-...
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Fresh S&P E-Minis Cycle High
Sep-10 10:29
- In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle high today, breaching the Sep 5 high of 6541.75. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 6600.00 handle next. Initial support to watch is 64262.58, the 20-day EMA.
- A corrective bear cycle in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains in play. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of 5369.17, the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a short-term bearish threat and signals scope for a deeper retracement towards 5166.00, the Aug 1 low and a key support. On the upside, the contract has recovered above the 20-day EMA - a bullish development. A stronger reversal would open 5445.00, the Aug 26 high.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: PPI Final, 10Y Note Re-Open Auction
Sep-10 10:29
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 09/10 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-1.2%, --)
- 09/10 0830 PPI Final Demand MoM (0.9%, 0.3%), YoY (3.3%, 3.3%)
- 09/10 1000 Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.2%, 0.2%)
- 09/10 1000 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (0.3%, 0.2%)
- 09/10 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auction
- 09/10 1300 US Tsy $39B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CNT4)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
US TSY FUTURES: Net Long Cover Dominated On Tuesday
Sep-10 10:25
OI data points to net long cover in most contracts as Tsy futures settled lower on Tuesday.
- Modest rounds of net short setting in UXY & WN futures broke the broader trend.
- The largest DV01 equivalent positioning swing came in US futures
| 09-Sep-25 | 08-Sep-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,485,021 | 4,499,161 | -14,140 | -577,163 |
FV | 6,789,828 | 6,797,362 | -7,534 | -336,257 |
TY | 5,263,443 | 5,282,797 | -19,354 | -1,327,159 |
UXY | 2,365,379 | 2,358,821 | +6,558 | +597,880 |
US | 1,828,158 | 1,854,170 | -26,012 | -3,695,960 |
WN | 2,021,065 | 2,015,958 | +5,107 | +948,801 |
|
| Total | -55,375 | -4,389,858 |
