POWER: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: CWE Climb

Aug-22 11:46

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CWE German September is rising slightly amid small gains in TTF and above seasonal temperatures head...

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FOREX: AUD Uptick Firms Further on Break of $0.66

Jul-23 11:46
  • AUD clearing 0.6600 at typing, with the uptick accelerating on the break of a cluster of resistance into 0.6595. Above here, resistance is scant until 0.6688, the Nov 07 high, printed shortly after the US election last year. Additionally, 0.6700 represents the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 '24 - Apr 9 bear leg.

OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Remain Above recent Lows

Jul-23 11:45
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher again, on Tuesday. This week’s gains have resulted in a move through resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 130.24. The clear break of the EMA undermines a recent bear theme and highlights a possible reversal. Sights are on 130.85 61.8% of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg. A break of this level would open 131.33, the Jun 20 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 129.08, the Jul 14 low.
  • Gilt futures traded sharply higher on Tuesday, extending the recovery from the Jul 18 low. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA, strengthening a bullish theme and this undermines the recent bearish condition. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 92.42 next, a 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low.

EGBS: Growth Concerns Modestly Outweigh Inflation Aspects Of Tariff Retaliation

Jul-23 11:42
  • EGBs see the growth negative angle outweighing higher near-term inflation risks on the potential US-EU trade escalation as Bloomberg reports the EU plans to react with 30% tariffs of its own if no deal.
  • German 2Y yields are almost 1bp lower post headlines but still +0.4bp on the day. The curve holds its modest steepening with 2s10s at 79.7bp (+1.1bp on the day).
  • EUR 1Y CPI ex-tobacco inflation swaps are also holding lower, at 1.63% (-1bp on the day), although the 1Y1Y at 1.82% is at its highest since late June and having last been more clearly higher prior to early April US reciprocal tariff announcements.
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