AUD clearing 0.6600 at typing, with the uptick accelerating on the break of a cluster of resistance into 0.6595. Above here, resistance is scant until 0.6688, the Nov 07 high, printed shortly after the US election last year. Additionally, 0.6700 represents the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 '24 - Apr 9 bear leg.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gilts Remain Above recent Lows
Jul-23 11:45
In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher again, on Tuesday. This week’s gains have resulted in a move through resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 130.24. The clear break of the EMA undermines a recent bear theme and highlights a possible reversal. Sights are on 130.85 61.8% of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg. A break of this level would open 131.33, the Jun 20 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 129.08, the Jul 14 low.
Gilt futures traded sharply higher on Tuesday, extending the recovery from the Jul 18 low. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA, strengthening a bullish theme and this undermines the recent bearish condition. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 92.42 next, a 50.0% retracement of the Jul 1 - 18 bear leg. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 91.08, the Jul 18 low.
EGBS: Growth Concerns Modestly Outweigh Inflation Aspects Of Tariff Retaliation
Jul-23 11:42
EGBs see the growth negative angle outweighing higher near-term inflation risks on the potential US-EU trade escalation as Bloomberg reports the EU plans to react with 30% tariffs of its own if no deal.
German 2Y yields are almost 1bp lower post headlines but still +0.4bp on the day. The curve holds its modest steepening with 2s10s at 79.7bp (+1.1bp on the day).
EUR 1Y CPI ex-tobacco inflation swaps are also holding lower, at 1.63% (-1bp on the day), although the 1Y1Y at 1.82% is at its highest since late June and having last been more clearly higher prior to early April US reciprocal tariff announcements.