EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Rangebound On EU Gas Movement

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 21-Apr 0830 Chicago Fed Goolsbee interview on CNBC
• 21-Apr 1000 Leading Index (-0.3%, -0.5%)
• 21-Apr 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions

• US markets returning from Easter holiday to Treasury curves twisting steeper, bonds under pressure on lighter volumes as European markets remain closed for Easter Monday.
• Currently, Jun'25 2Y & 5Y contracts trade +1-2, 10Y -3.5 at 111-02, 30Y bond -20 at 113-30. 10Y yield +.0291 at 4.3540%.
• Wires continue to report Pres Trump's wishes to interfere with the independent Federal Reserve by sacking Fed Chairman Powell, not to mention ongoing tariff related headlines.
• Initial technical support for TYM5 below at 110-15/109-08 (Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger). Resistance at 111-17+ (High Apr 16). Volume in 10s just under 130k.
• Cross asset update: US$ falls to early Jan '24 levels, BBG $ index -9.6 at 1215.08; Gold climbs to new intra-day all-time high of 3397.75; stocks weaker SPX eminis -53.50 at 5259.25.
• Limited data today: Leading index at 1000ET, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee interview on CNBC at 0830ET. Tsy bill auctions at 1130ET: $76B 13W & $68B 26W bills.

The US dollar sell off has continued through today’s APAC sell off with the USD BBDXY now down 0.8% and close to its intraday low, as confidence in the US as a safe haven wanes following uncertainty over its trade policy and now President Trump’s interference with the Fed. Unusually this has coincided with US equity futures deeply in negative territory. Flight-to-quality flows have seen the yen, euro and Swiss franc all strengthen by at least 1% against the greenback but also kiwi, which is usually risk sensitive.

• EURUSD is up 1.2% to 1.1530, close to the intraday high and exceeding 1.1500 later in the session. This is its highest level since November 2021. It has broken above resistance at 1.1495 opening up 1.1555.
• GBPUSD is 0.7% higher at 1.3392 but EURGBP is +0.4% to 0.8609, still below initial resistance, with breaks above 0.8610 short lived.
• USDCHF is down 1.0% to 0.8084 after a trough of 0.8069. EURCHF has range traded but is currently up 0.2% to 0.9319.
• USDJPY is 1.1% lower at 140.69, close to the intraday low of 140.62. The yen is now its strongest against the dollar since July 2023. EURJPY is up 0.1% to 162.19 off today’s trough of 161.65. It remains below initial resistance at 163.55.
• Equities are mixed with the S&P e-mini down 0.7% and Nikkei -1.2% but CSI 300 up 0.3% and Nifty 50 +1.1%. Oil prices lower with Brent -1.4% to $67.01/bbl. Copper is up 0.4% and iron ore is around $99/t.
• Later the Fed’s Goolsbee appears and the US March leading index is released. Europe remains closed.