EMISSIONS: EU Mid-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Rangebound On EU Gas Movement
May-21 11:08
EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are rangebound on the day, with small gains in EU gas supporting carbon as the intraday correlation between EUAs-TTF hovered above 0.60 in the morning.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.07% at 73.23 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 0.13% at 55.01 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas JUN 25 up 1.7% at 37.59 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas JUN 25 up 1.5% at 90.44 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 down 0.4% at 5438
- FTSE 100 JUN 25 down 0.1% at 8781.5
- Intraday correlation between EUA/TTF on 5-min ticker at 0.80 near noon.
- EUA POSITIONING – Funds positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange was bullish for the third consecutive week according to the latest COT data as of 16 May.
- UKA POSITIONING – Speculator positioning in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange raised bullish bets for the ninth consecutive week amid rising bullish sentiments on EU-UK ETS linkage deal, according to the latest COT data as of 16 May.
- EU Steelmakers could see EUAs exposure up to 7% of their 2025 EBITDA, according to Bloomberg.
- Simon Stiell, UN Climate Chief, said stronger climate action is needed to stabilise the global economy and emphasised that investors are “ready to hit the go button on huge investments” if they had the right signals from governments.
- Poland is working on modification to the upcoming EU ETS2 scheme, aiming to address transition period concerns and price hedging mechanism, Deputy Climate and Environment Minister, Urszula Zielinska, told the Polish Lower House of Parliament Sejm, according to Bloomberg.
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LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Chicago Fed Goolsbee, Leading Index, Tsy Bills
Apr-21 11:05
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 21-Apr 0830 Chicago Fed Goolsbee interview on CNBC
- 21-Apr 1000 Leading Index (-0.3%, -0.5%)
- 21-Apr 1130 US Tsy $76B 13W, $68B 26W bill auctions
US TSYS: Curves Twist Steeper, Bonds Under Pressure
Apr-21 10:54
- US markets returning from Easter holiday to Treasury curves twisting steeper, bonds under pressure on lighter volumes as European markets remain closed for Easter Monday.
- Currently, Jun'25 2Y & 5Y contracts trade +1-2, 10Y -3.5 at 111-02, 30Y bond -20 at 113-30. 10Y yield +.0291 at 4.3540%.
- Wires continue to report Pres Trump's wishes to interfere with the independent Federal Reserve by sacking Fed Chairman Powell, not to mention ongoing tariff related headlines.
- Initial technical support for TYM5 below at 110-15/109-08 (Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger). Resistance at 111-17+ (High Apr 16). Volume in 10s just under 130k.
- Cross asset update: US$ falls to early Jan '24 levels, BBG $ index -9.6 at 1215.08; Gold climbs to new intra-day all-time high of 3397.75; stocks weaker SPX eminis -53.50 at 5259.25.
- Limited data today: Leading index at 1000ET, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee interview on CNBC at 0830ET. Tsy bill auctions at 1130ET: $76B 13W & $68B 26W bills.
FOREX: US Dollar Trends Lower Through APAC Session, Broad Based G10 Gains
Apr-21 06:10
The US dollar sell off has continued through today’s APAC sell off with the USD BBDXY now down 0.8% and close to its intraday low, as confidence in the US as a safe haven wanes following uncertainty over its trade policy and now President Trump’s interference with the Fed. Unusually this has coincided with US equity futures deeply in negative territory. Flight-to-quality flows have seen the yen, euro and Swiss franc all strengthen by at least 1% against the greenback but also kiwi, which is usually risk sensitive.
- EURUSD is up 1.2% to 1.1530, close to the intraday high and exceeding 1.1500 later in the session. This is its highest level since November 2021. It has broken above resistance at 1.1495 opening up 1.1555.
- GBPUSD is 0.7% higher at 1.3392 but EURGBP is +0.4% to 0.8609, still below initial resistance, with breaks above 0.8610 short lived.
- USDCHF is down 1.0% to 0.8084 after a trough of 0.8069. EURCHF has range traded but is currently up 0.2% to 0.9319.
- USDJPY is 1.1% lower at 140.69, close to the intraday low of 140.62. The yen is now its strongest against the dollar since July 2023. EURJPY is up 0.1% to 162.19 off today’s trough of 161.65. It remains below initial resistance at 163.55.
- Equities are mixed with the S&P e-mini down 0.7% and Nikkei -1.2% but CSI 300 up 0.3% and Nifty 50 +1.1%. Oil prices lower with Brent -1.4% to $67.01/bbl. Copper is up 0.4% and iron ore is around $99/t.
- Later the Fed’s Goolsbee appears and the US March leading index is released. Europe remains closed.
