EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Rise On EU Gas Gains
Jun-05 15:30
EUAs Dec25 are edging up on EU gas gains, while the downward revision of the 2026 inflation forecast creates a bearish backdrop, as it signals weaker economic growth, potentially reducing industrial output and energy demand. UKAs Dec25 are edging up, tracking EUAs gains, while low trading interest and steady open interests limiting movements.
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.33% at 72.85 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 0.78% at 50.69 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas JUL 25 up 1.9% at 36.345 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas JUL 25 up 2.4% at 85.33 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0.1% at 5410
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period remained high at 0.65.
- Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained at 0.45.
- Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period inched up to 0.40.
- The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level at €12.65/t CO2e.
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €72.54/ton CO2e, up 2.73% compared with the previous EU auction at €70.61/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- TTF front month is higher today amidst optimism around a de-escalation of trade tensions after a Trump-Xi call, which could support global LNG demand, and supply risks from seasonal outages. Limited prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, amid heightened tensions, adds to upside pressure.
- EUA Auction Calendar Week Ahead (Calendar Week 24) - A total of 10mn EUAs will be auctioned next week, with four auction sessions will be held due to White Monday.
- Slight pullback in EUAs for 25/26 with a higher-than expected downward revision in 2026 inflation forecasts, while ECB rate cut was expected.
- The ECB cuts its policy rates 25bps including the deposit rate to 2.00% as unanimously expected.
- EEX reported that EUAs secondary market trading volume in May 2025 dropped 43% year-on-year, it said.
- UK ETS has cancelled 30.5k free UKAs allocation, equivalent to £1.5mn based on current UKAs Dec25 price, for operators of installations as a result of Activity Level Changes, it said.
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US: CANADA: Trump-Carney White House Meeting Underway Shortly
May-06 15:27
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House for a first meeting between the pair since Carney's Liberal Party retained government control at last month's federal elections. LIVESTREAM
- There will be significant focus on comments by the two leaders at a press spray before today's bilateral meeting and working lunch. Carney has positioned himself atop a group of countries firmly pushing back against Trump's hardline trade agenda. His political experience is likely to lead to a more restrained Oval Office meeting, with difficult negotiations pushed into a closed-door setting.
- The New York Times notes that Carney, "faces an unenviable balancing act. Canadians who took a chance on him will expect him to push back on Mr. Trump’s belittling and threatening rhetoric against Canada, as he promised he would."
- "But he will also need to avoid openly antagonizing Mr. Trump in their working luncheon or in front of journalists in the Oval Office photo opportunity that will follow."
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $750M Gold Fields 7Y Launched
May-06 15:24
A lot more corporate debt to issue today, not to mention the Tsy $42B 10Y note sale at 1300ET.
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 05/06 $750B #Gold Fields 7Y +175
- 05/06 $500M *Shinhan Bank 5Y +72
- 05/06 $500M Eaton WNG 5Y +90a
- 05/06 $Benchmark Bank of America 4NC3 +110a, 4NC3 SOFR+134, 11NC10 +140a
- 05/06 $Benchmark Starbucks Corp 3Y +100a, 5Y +115a, 10Y+135a
- 05/06 $Benchmark Standard Chartered 6NC5 +165a, 6NC5 SOFR
- 05/06 $Benchmark Cummins Inc +80a, +5Y +100a, 10Y +120a
- 05/06 $Benchmark Biogen +5Y +150a, 10Y +175a, 30Y +200a
- 05/06 $Benchmark American Homes 4 Rent 5Y +145a
- 05/06 $Benchmark Deutsche Bank 6NC5 fix/SOFR
- 05/06 $Benchmark Host Hotels & Resorts 7Y +195a
- 05/06 $Benchmark PNC 2NC1 +100a, 6NC5 +120a
- 05/06 $Benchmark Dominion Energy 3Y +110a
- 05/06 $Benchmark UBS 11NC10 +160a
OPTIONS: Expiries for May07 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
May-06 15:17
- EUR/USD: $1.1400(E763mln)
- USD/JPY: Y142.50($804mln), Y143.00($595mln), Y143.20($746mln), Y145.50-55($1.1bln), Y145.85-00($1.6bln)
- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8555-68(E501mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6400(A$676mln), $0.6600(A$717mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3750-65825mln), C$1.3775-80($961mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.2000($500mln)
