EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Rise, UKAs Fall To Two-Week Low
May-15 15:31
EUAs Dec25 are trending upward on the day, influenced by EU gas movement, with the EUA-TTF intraday correlation hitting 0.90 in the afternoon. UKAs Dec25 are falling for the third consecutive session, hitting a two-week low; the decline may result from continued short positioning, as open interest rose to an all-time high on Wednesday while prices dropped.
- EUA DEC 25 up 1.35% at 73.31 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 down 0.95% at 48.97 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas JUN 25 up 0.6% at 35.255 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas JUN 25 up 0.7% at 84.35 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0.2% at 5399
- Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period remained at 0.62.
- Correlation between EUA/STOXX for 30-day period remained at 0.51.
- Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained high at 0.74.
- Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period remained high at 0.56.
- The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent widened to €15.17/t CO2e from the €13.63/t CO2e in the previous day, the highest level since late March.
- The latest EU ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €70.11/ton CO2e, down 2.20% compared with the previous EU auction at €71.69/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- EU greenhouse gas emissions rose 2.2% year-on-year in Q4 2024, reaching 897MtCO2e, while GDP grew 1.5% over the same period, according to Eurostat.
- Czech Cez increased its hedging for power delivered in 2026-28 in 1Q25 from the end of 2024, with the firm selling power for delivery in 2029 for the first time. Its contracted emissions rose for 2026-27, while volumes for 2028 were finally secured under contract.
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CAD: USD/CAD Hits New Daily High, But Tech Signal Still Point Lower
Apr-15 15:28
USD/CAD hits a new daily high following the London close - 1.3938 marks the new daily high having cleared both the overnight high as well as Monday's 1.3911.
- Moves come despite Canada's decision to provide tariff exemptions for automakers that stay within Canada (GM and Stellantis both maintain assembly plants in Ontario) as well as a six-month counter-tariff delay to some US goods.
- Instead, the further weakness in energy prices will be working against the currency. The bounce off lows for Brent crude futures appears to have stalled, keeping prices either side of $64/bbl and looking once again fragile now that the oversold condition has unwound.
- That said, a bearish theme for USD/CAD remains intact for now. Last week’s move down marked a resumption of the downtrend and has signalled scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement.
- The Bank of Canada decision due tomorrow is the next focus - and while consensus looks for no change to rates tomorrow - a significant minority eye a further 25bps rate cut, which will be supporting overnight vols, which opened close to 15 points earlier today.
US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Jun'25 10Y Puts & Additional Trade
Apr-15 15:25
- 7,500 TYM 109 puts, 25 vs. 110-31/0.23 at 1115:14ET, additional 6,600 on screen.
- Additional screen trade includes:
- 10,000 TYK 111.25/111.75 1x2 call spds, 8 net ref 110-28.5
- 2,900 TYK5 110/112 strangles vs. TYM5 109/113 strangles
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Apr-15 15:25
- USD/JPY: Apr17 Y145.00($1.4bln)
- USD/CAD: Apr17 C$1.4000($1.4bln)
