EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls

• RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.3365 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3355 High Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.3269/86 20-day EMA / High Jun 29
• PRICE: 1.3240 @ 07:54 BST Jul 5
• SUP 1: 1.3190/3117 Low Jun 28 / 27 and key support
• SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally
• SUP 4: 1.2954 Low Sep 13 2022

USDCAD is holding on to its most recent gains. The latest recovery still appears to be a correction and the trend is bearish. Looking at MA studies, they remain in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2992, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3269, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3365.

FRANCE MAY INDUSTRIAL PROD +1.2% M/M (FCST -0.2%); APR +0.8% M/M

FRANCE MAY INDUSTRIAL PROD +2.6% Y/Y (FCST +0.6%); APR +1.7%r Y/Y

• Kicking off the round of major eurozone May IP data, French industrial production beat expectations, posting a healthy +1.2% m/m increase against expectations of a -0.2% m/m contraction.
• With strikes at refineries easing, coking and refining production jumped markedly by +45.1% m/m (after +22.1% in April). Further rebounds were recorded in auto (+5.8% after -1.7%) and agro-food industries (+1.5% after -0.5%).
• Barring a pronounced June contraction, French IP now looks likely to post a positive contribution to Q2 q/q GDP.
• At +2.6% y/y, 2023 June IP was substantially stronger than this time in 2022.
• Yet Insee flagged that certain energy-intensive branches continue to struggle with high energy prices. March to May production for steel was down -19.1% y/y, paper down -24.2% y/y and chemicals down -13.1% y/y.
• The French manufacturing PMI has been in contractive territory since January, and continually deteriorating new orders imply a negative outlook for the industry in months to come.