EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Eskom: NERSA settlement, no surprise but supportive read

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3373.6/3439.0 - High Jul 25 / 23             
• PRICE: 3319.6 @ 07:19 BST Jul 29 
• SUP 1: $3301.9 - Low Jul 27 
• SUP 2: $3282.8/3248.7 - Low Jul 9 / Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold has pulled back from its Jul 23 high. Short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3322.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the next key support at $3282.8, the Jul 9 low. Key short-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high. A break of this hurdle would be bullish.

• Bund saw a opening gap lower that was closed in early trade, and looking at the broader price action there's very little change.
• Short term risk is to the upside, Investors/Real Money are likely looking at parking some Cash at more attractive Yield levels after the German 10yr reached its highest level since late March last Week.
• The US-EU trade deal is seen as a failure by more European Political members, this is weighing on the EUR, Month End could also come into play, and August is seasonally a Bullish Month for Bund.
• Initial resistance comes at 129.95 (20 day EMA), although slightly better is seen towards the 130.00 figure.
• Small support moves up to 129.19, followed by 128.84.
• Today sees Spain GDP/Retail Sales, ECB CPI Expectations, and on the other side of the Pond, prelim Wholesales, Advance Trade Balance and JOLTS.
• SUPPLY: UK sells £5bn of 2028 (equates to 14k Gilt) should have a limited impact, Germany €4.5bn Bobl (equates to 41.95k Bobl) will weigh into the bidding deadline, US sells $44bn of 7yr Notes, and $30bn of 2yr FRN, the latter won't impact the 2yr.

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.46/121.73 High Jul 22 / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 120.92 High Jul 24  
• PRICE: 120.74@ Close Jul 27
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. A doji candle on Jul 25, and Monday’s gains, highlight a potential bullish reversal. A continuation higher would open 121.46, the Jul 22 high and 121.73, the Jul 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this latter level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.59, the Jul 25 low