EM LATAM CREDIT: Engie Chile: 2Q 25 headlines  

• In terms of pure flows: This is the second best traded 5 minutes period in Bund, around 40k went through during the Regional German CPIs releasde this Morning.
• Bund has just seen circa 43k lots trading from that fall at 130.27, down to 130.07.
• Given the contract has found support at the 2.60% resistance in Yield, this looks to be order related.
• US Treasuries have been unmoved and so have Equities, so suggest no new news.

Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic tells an MNI Connect event that he eyes potential for tariff inflation impact to extend into 2026, as part of a "continuous evolution" of prices as opposed to the textbook one-off impact: "It'll take a while for all these businesses to figure out exactly where their endpoint is. And you know, by some estimates, this could stretch into 2026 before businesses do all the things they're going to do, and that assumes that the tariff situation is not extended even further moving forward... I think the further implication of this is that what we will see with prices is such a more continuous evolution over time, as opposed to the textbook story of tariffs, which is a one time step up, right?... This doesn't look like it's going to be like a step like that, it would be much more incremental over time, and we'll have to see sort of what that means for overarching inflation dynamics."

• Bostic says that in addition to his latest Dot Plot submission for 1 cut in 2025, he has 3 cuts for 2026. Assuming he's talking about cuts in the given year ("next year, I think I have three cuts") rather than cumulative cuts, that means he's at 3.4% end-2026 which is below the 3.6% FOMC median for that year.
• On the timing of the resumption of rate normalization, Bostic says "I would say I like to move in a direction when I know which direction to move in, and that would, for me, require more information than we have today...I want to make sure that I have some confidence that I know for sure which direction the economy is going in and our mandates, before really feeling comfortable that we should move now...I think we actually have some luxury to be patient".
• On last week's soft consumer spending data: "I ... think that a lot of this was not about the tariffs, like because much of the tariff pricing has not actually made it into the marketplace yet, and so that response is yet to come... I think there was some point forward of consumption... and ... uncertainty causes everyone to go a little slower, take your time, step back and wait and see."

•  RES 4: 6300.00 Round number resistance       
• RES 3: 6281.12 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: 6277.50 High Feb 19 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 6255.00 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 6239.00 @ 14:54 BST Jun 30  
• SUP 1: 6069.53/5952.84 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract has started this week on a firm note. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. The 6200.00 handle has been cleared too, this opens 6277.50, the Feb 21 high and bull trigger. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 5952.84.