EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - EURHUF Breaches Resistance
Oct-24 11:15
- A bull cycle in EURHUF remains intact and the contract traded higher yesterday. This resulted in a breach of 402.38, the Oct 7 high. The breach confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Sights are set on 404.35, the Jan 3 high, and 408.77, the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 2022 - Jun 2023 bear leg. Initial firm support lies at 399.81, the 20-day EMA. Support at the 50-day EMA, is at 397.53.
- EURPLN maintains a firmer tone following the bull cycle that started on Sep 25. Last week’s gains and this week’s extension are a positive development and highlight the end of the recent Oct 7 - 14 corrective pullback. The cross has traded through a key resistance at 4.3309, the Aug 9 high. Clearance of this level exposes 4.3506, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 15 bear leg. Clearance of this level would expose 4.3826, the Jun 14 high. Initial firm support is at 4.3044, the 20-day EMA.
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EQUITIES: Away From Highs As Israel Outlines Further Escalation In Atttacks
Sep-24 11:11
Equities move away from highs as the Israeli military chief points to an acceleration of attacks on Hezbollah today.
- E-minis now in the red.
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures still +1.0% after benefiting from closer linkages to China following the unveiling of the latest Chinese stimulus package and subsequent Chinese equity rally.
EGBS: Futures Bounce of Lows, Dovish ECB Repricing Extends
Sep-24 11:04
10-year Bund yields found resistance at 2.20%, helping futures bounce ~40 ticks off intraday lows to 134.57, now slightly higher on the day.
- Similar price action observed in OAT and BTP futures.
- Estoxx 50 futures were unable to push through last Thursday’s highs, but are still +1.1% higher today. Brent crude futures also remain +2.0%, with the bid in both asset classes a function of previously-covered China stimulus measures overnight.
- The short-end remains insulated by this morning’s dovish repricing in EUR STIRs, with ECB-dated OIS now showing a ~60% implied probability of a 25bp cut in October (vs 40% at yesterday’s close).
- These moves, alongside smooth digestion of earlier supply, sees 2-year German yields 3bps lower today, with the curve twist steepening.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Approaches Resistance Is AT The 50-Day EMA
Sep-24 11:00
- On the commodity front, a bullish structure in Gold remains intact and the metal has traded, once again, to a fresh all-time high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. The focus is on $2642.7 next, a 2.236 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. Firm support lies at $2547.5, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures are holding on to their recent gains. The recovery since Sep 9, appears - for now - to be a correction. The 20-day EMA, at $70.28, has been pierced. The next key resistance to watch is $72.38, the 50-day EMA. A break would undermine a bear theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on $64.61, the Sep 10 low and bear trigger.
