BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Week Of Two Halves Concludes With Gains

May-16 17:53

European FI concluded a week of two halves with a modest rally Friday, the second consecutive session of gains after three days of losses.

  • Gains were concentrated in the morning session, with some follow through from Thursday's softly-perceived US data and a key rejection of the 2.70% level in 10Y Bund boosting sentiment.
  • Global core FI traded heavier in the European afternoon however, with the University of Michigan survey showing US consumer inflation expectations soaring.
  • In data, the Eurozone posted a record trade surplus in March (largely on US tariff front-running), while final Italian HICP was revised down.
  • Bunds outperformed Gilts, with the German curve leaning bull steeper from the 5-30Y segment; the UK saw twist flattening. In both cases, the short end underperformed on the curve.
  • The week saw bear flattening in both the UK (2Y +9.7bp, 10Y +8.2bp) and Germany (2Y+7.0bp, 10Y +2.8bp).
  • Periphery EGBs traded mixed. Iberian instruments underperformed, with Spanish and Portuguese spreads around 1bp wider to Bunds on the day.
  • Next week's schedule includes May flash PMI data, UK CPI, and the European Commission's latest economic forecasts.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.5bps at 1.855%, 5-Yr is down 3.5bps at 2.155%, 10-Yr is down 3.2bps at 2.59%, and 30-Yr is down 2.6bps at 3.04%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.7bps at 4.005%, 5-Yr is up 0.5bps at 4.146%, 10-Yr is down 1.1bps at 4.649%, and 30-Yr is down 1.6bps at 5.394%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 0.1bps at 100.6bps / Spanish bond spread up 0.9bps at 62.4bps  

Historical bullets

OPTIONS: Call Structure Buying Across Contracts

Apr-16 17:52

Wednesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

  • DUM5 107.70/108.00/108.10c ladder, bought for half in 2.1k.
  • ERU5 98.25/98.50cs 1x2, bought for 2.5 in 3k
  • SFIM5 95.95/9610/96.25c fly, bought for 2.75 in 3k

STIR: BLOCK/Pit Sep'25 SOFR Call Fly Buyer

Apr-16 17:46
  • total +20,000 SFRU5 96.00/96.25/96.50 call flys, 4.25 net ref 96.275 to -.28

US TSYS: Chairman Powell Reactions

Apr-16 17:40
  • Treasuries holding modest gains, upper half of narrow range as Fed Chairman Powell begins speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago.
  • Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures trading +4 at 111-06.5 vs. 111-09.5 high, still well below secondary technical resistance of 111-25 (50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 bear leg).
  • Curves are scaling off steeper levels, 2s10s +2.053 at 50.443 vs. 53.324 high, 5s30s +3.580 at 82.619 vs. 83.791 high.
  • Stocks, on the other hand have extended lows (SPX eminis down to 5332.25) - apparently taking cue from Powell that the Fed is "well positioned to wait for more clarity". Chip stocks and discretionary sectors still leading laggers.