BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Equity Pullback Keeps Core FI Underpinned

Mar-13 17:20

Front-end Bunds and long-end Gilts outperformed on the respective curves Thursday, with EGB periphery/semi-core spreads widening.

  • Core FI weakened in European morning trade, with the EGB space weighed down in part by Italian/Greek supply. Eurozone IP (above consensus, but in-line with MNI tracking) didn't appear to be a negative trigger in itself.
  • But US tariff concerns once again returned to the forefront of market movements, with Bunds gaining as President Trump threatened soaring tariffs on US imports of EU alcoholic beverages. Meanwhile renewed Green Party opposition to the incoming government's fiscal plan also saw a Bund boost.
  • A renewed pullback in equities saw yields enter the cash close at/near the lows.
  • The German curve bull steepened, with the UK's bull flattening. BTPs and GGBs underperformed on the periphery, again with supply a factor.
  • Friday's agenda includes UK monthly activity / GDP, Italian industrial production, final Feb CPI for France/Germany/Spain, and appearances by ECB's Escriva and Cipollone.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 4.2bps at 2.183%, 5-Yr is down 3.6bps at 2.486%, 10-Yr is down 2.2bps at 2.855%, and 30-Yr is up 0.9bps at 3.175%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 3.3bps at 4.192%, 5-Yr is down 3.8bps at 4.3%, 10-Yr is down 4.5bps at 4.677%, and 30-Yr is down 4.5bps at 5.281%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 3.2bps at 114.8bps / Greek up 2.9bps at 84.8bps  

Historical bullets

PIPELINE: Corporate/Supra-Sovereign Debt Issuance Update: $5B Israel Launched

Feb-11 17:18
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 02/11 $5B #Israel $2.5B 5Y +120, $2.5B 10Y +135
  • 02/11 $1B Snap Inc 8NC3 7%
  • 02/11 $Benchmark Tennessee Valley Authority 30Y +60
  • 02/11 $Benchmark Flowers Food 10Y +125, 30Y +150
  • 02/11 $Benchmark Zimmer Biomet 2Y +70a, 5Y +95a, 10Y +120a

STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: Second Large March'25 SOFR Futures Cross

Feb-11 17:12
  • -40,000 SFRH5 95.705, post-time bid at 1202:23ET, DV01 $1.0M, the contract trades 95.70 last (-0.010). 

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 3Y Note Auction

Feb-11 17:08

Tsy futures are trading near early session lows ahead of the $58B 3Y note auction (91282CMN8) at 1300ET, WI is currently at 4.312%, 2bp rich to last month's auction.

  • January auction recap: Treasury futures remain mostly weaker, off lows after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CMF5) draws 4.332% high yield vs. 4.320% WI; 2.62x bid-to-cover vs. 2.58x prior.
  • Peripheral stats see indirect take-up slips to 60.98% vs. 64.18% prior; direct bidder take-up rebounds to 19.67% from 9.62% prior; primary dealer take-up rises to 19.36% vs. 15.11% prior.
  • Timing today's 3Y note sale: results will be available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.