EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply Daily

See the full document here for the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix with a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance, a recap of last week's issuance and a look ahead of Q3 / H2 issuance plans.

The EU, the Netherlands, Germany and Italy will all look to hold auctions in the upcoming week. We look for gross issuance of E28.5bln for the week, down from E29.4bln ex-retail last week.

• The EU will kick off auction issuance for the week this morning with its final auction of H1, with up to E2.5bln of the 3.125% Dec-28 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4EN5), up to E3bln of the 3.25% Dec-36 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A4ERVC2) and up to E1.5bln of the 1.25% Feb-43 Green EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DG1) on offer.
  • The H2 EU is expected to follow later this week (potentially as soon as this afternoon).
• The Netherlands will come to the market tomorrow with E1.0-2.0bln of the on-the-run 30-year 3.50% Jan-56 DSL (ISIN: NL0015002P70) on offer.
• Germany will look to hold its first auction of the week tomorrow with E5bln of the 2.50% Jun-28 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22130) on offer.

• RES 4: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: 0.8731 High May 18 
• RES 1: 0.8694 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8670 @ 06:41 BST Jun 22
• SUP 1: 0.8650/18 20-day EMA / Low May 25
• SUP 2: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14 ‘25
• SUP 4: 0.8576 Low Jul 2 ‘25  

EURGBP support has remained intact and the latest recovery highlights a short-term bull cycle. A resumption of gains would suggest potential for a climb towards the next important resistance at 0.8731, the May 18 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight dominant downtrend, suggesting gains are corrective. The key support and bear trigger lies at 0.8610, the Mar 16 low.

France, Austria, Greece and Italy are due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance of E14.6bln, down from E22.1bln last week. 

• This afternoon, France will look to sell up to E7.7bln of 14/23/25/51-week BTFs: E2.9-3.3bln of the new 14-week Sep 30, 2026 BTF, E0.0-0.4bln of the 23-week Dec 2, 2026 BTF, E1.6-2.0bln of the 25-week Dec 16, 2026 BTF and E1.6-2.0bln of the 51-week Jun 16, 2027 BTF.
• Tomorrow morning, Austria will look to issue E0.5bln of the 3-month Sep 24, 2026 ATB and E1.5bln of the 4-month Oct 29, 2026 green ATB.
• On Wednesday morning, Greece will look to come to the market with E400mln of the 26-week Dec 28, 2026 GTB.
• Finally on Thursday morning, Italy will look to sell the 5-month Nov 30, 2026 BOT, potentially alongside another BOT.  Details will be announced today.