EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply Daily
Belgian is due to hold an ORI auction today, books for the retail-only BTP Valore will close and France will hold its LT OAT non-competitive round. Tuesday was a big day for issuance with Austria and Germany holding syndications, the Netherlands a DDA and Germany a conventional auction. Germany returned with a Green auction on Wednesday, while Spain and France held conventional auctions yesterday. We look for gross issuance of E40.5bln for the week (excluding retail), up from E38.0bln last week.
- Belgium today will look to hold an ORI auction, selling up to a combined E500mln of the 3.10% Jun-35 OLO (ISIN: BE0000363722) and the 0.65% Jun-71 OLO (ISIN: BE0000353624).
- Italy comes to the market this week to sell a retail only BTP Valore with a 6-year maturity (ISIN: IT0005696320). Books opened on Monday and despite strong takeup at the start of the week ( the second highest ever first-day take up), the past couple of days have seen softer demand, albeit with over E15bln now requested (this is the second lowest of any BTP Valore after four days). Books are due to close today at midday GMT / 13:00CET.
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply Daily
Belgium is likely to hold a syndication and Germany an auction today. Spain and France are scheduled to hold conventional auctions tomorrow while Finland and Belgium are scheduled to hold ORI auctions, tomorrow and Friday. Yesterday there were syndications from Italy and the ESM while Germany held a green auction. We look for issuance of E47.9bln for the week, up from E42.8bln last week.
- Belgium has announced a mandate for a syndicated transaction to launch a new 30-year Jun-56 OLO in the near future. We look for a E4-6bln transaction size today (probably the bottom half of the range most likely given that this is a 30-year OLO).
- We had pencilled a Belgian long-end syndication for next week (post-ECB) rather than this week. A 20/30-year OLO had been expected (see our expectations in the MNI EGB Issuance Deep Dive), so this is not a huge surprise to us.
- Germany will return to the market this morning with E4bln of the 7-year 2.50% Nov-32 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27014) on offer.
EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17
- RES 3: 0.8746 High Jan 21 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8702 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8675 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8627 @ 06:41 GMT Feb 4
- SUP 1: 0.8620 38.2% of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 upleg & Low Feb 03
- SUP 2: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
- SUP 3: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25
- SUP 4: 0.8544 50.0% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle
A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play and this week’s break lower reinforces current conditions. The breach of 0.8466, the Jan 6 low and a bear trigger, confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The next support to watch is 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement and the Feb 03 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.8746, the Jan 21 high.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C February 2
The EU is still due to sell bills this week, while Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Belgium, and the ESM have already come to the market. We expect issuance to be E29.6bln in first round operations, up from E17.7bln last week.
- Today, the EU will look to sell up to E1.0bln of the 3-month May 8, 2026 EU-bill, up to E1.0bln of the 6-month Aug 7, 2026 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 12-month Feb 5, 2027 EU-bill.
