EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
The EFSF, Austria, France, Latvia and Portugal have all held syndications this week while Slovakia, Germany, Finland, and Greece have held auctions. Gross issuance for the week was E26.6bln, down from E43.0bln last week.
For more on this week's issuance and a look ahead to next week's supply see the PDF here:
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EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply
Greece is due to hold a syndication today with Germany returning for its second auction of the week. The EU and Finland held syndications yesterday while Italy and Germany held auctions. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week from currently announced operations at E28.5bln. However, there is still a chance that we see another syndication or two announced this week with Austria, France, Portugal and Spain all having the potential to come to the market.
- Greece has announced a mandate for a new 30-year GGB maturing 15 June 2054 to be sold via syndication take place in the “near future”. We look for a transaction today with a size of E1.5-2.5bln likely.
- Germany will return to the market this morning with E4bln of the 10-year 2.20% Feb-34 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z023) on offer.
GILT TECHS: (M4) Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 100.05 High Mar 22
- RES 3: 99.37 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 99.10 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 97.69/98.23 20-day EMA / High Apr 12
- PRICE: 96.81 @ Close Apr 23
- SUP 1: 96.45/01 Low Apr 19 / 17
- SUP 2: 95.96 1.764 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
- SUP 3: 95.41 2.00 proj of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing
- SUP 4: 95.00 Round number support
A bearish theme in Gilt futures remains intact and gains are considered corrective. The contract traded lower last week, delivering a fresh cycle low of 96.01 on Apr 17. This maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Furthermore, MA studies have crossed, highlighting a bear-mode set-up. Scope is seen for an extension towards 95.96 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is 98.23, the Apr 12 high.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C April 22, 2024
Germany, France, and Austria have already sold bills this week. Greece, and Italy are still due to sell bills this week. We expect issuance to be E20.7bln in first round operations, down from E22.0bln last week.
- Today, Greece will look to come to the market with E625mln of the new 26-week Oct 25, 2024 GTB.
- Also today, Italy will come to the market to reopen 3/4/6-month BOTs: E1.5bln of the 3-month Jul 12, 2024 BOT, E1.5bln of the 4-month Aug 14, 2024 BOT and E3.0bln of the 6-month Nov 14, 2024 BOT.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
