EUROZONE ISSUANCE: EGB Supply

Greece, Portugal and the EU are all due to sell bills this week, whilst Germany, the Netherlands, France and the ESM have already issued bills. We expect issuance to be E18.9bln in first round operations, down from E22.2bln last week.

• Today, Greece will issue E500mln of the new 26-week Aug 22, 2025 GTB.
• Also today, Portugal will look to sell E0.75-1.00bln of the 11-month Jan 16, 2026 BT.
• Finally today, the EU will sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month May 9, 2025 EU-bill, up to E1.5bln of the 6-month Aug 8, 2025 EU-bill and up to E1.0bln of the 12-month Feb 6, 2026 EU-bill.

For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.

The minutes to the January 28-29 FOMC meeting (due out 1400ET/1900GMT Wednesday Feb 19) will be scrutinized primarily for three things: why the Fed shifted its statement language on inflation; was there any discussion of a rate hike scenario; and was there any further discussion over the potential impact of government policy shifts?

• Since the January meeting, FOMC participants have become more hawkish – or at least, more patient.
• We have shifted the dots in our Hawk-Dove Spectrum toward the hawkish end pretty much across the board – with sentiment toward a prolonged hold seemingly building.
• MNI's preview of the Minutes includes what to watch for upon release; MNI's FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum, and key highlights of FOMC participant commentary since the January meeting.
• Download Full Report Here

In case you missed this overnight, Brightmine median basic pay awards in the 3 months to January came in at 3.0%, the second consecutive reading where pay awards have remained at the lowest level since December 2021 (after the 3 months to December figure was revised to 3.0% from 3.3%). 

• The press release notes this is "signaling a shift toward more restrained pay increases after a period of elevated awards."
• The dispersion in pay awards narrowed in January with the interquartile range having narrowed to between 2.5% and 4.0% in January, driven by the upper quartile falling.
• Looking ahead, pay awards are likely to remain at low levels due to the rising cost from employee National Insurance contributions rising.
• The rolling quarter of data is based on 69 pay settlements between November 2024 and January 2025, representing more than 95,000 employees (vs 22 pay award covering 227,000 employees between October and December).