BONDS: EGB/Gilt - Gilt/Bund spread widest since 1996

Sep-23 14:26
  • Another really busy session across multi assets, after the UK set the tone for the UK markets this morning, with some continuation this afternoon.
  • EGBs and Bund did bounce, as some Desks squared ahead of the weekend.
  • The push higher was short lived, after US PMIs came above expectations.
  • Peripheral spreads are all wider, Italy in the lead by 7.9bps.
  • Biggest move is in the UK, with UK 10yr yield moves above the US 10yr today, first time since 2014
  • Gilt/Bund spreads targets the 1996 high at 179.90, also the widest print since 05/10/1992, now at 176.3bps.
  • Looking ahead, notable data for next week, include Japan Prelim PMI, German IFO (mon).
  • Sweden PPI, US prelim Durable goods (tue).
  • US Wholesale Inventories (wed).
  • Spain/German CPI, US 3rd reading GDP/Core PCE (thu).
  • Japan Employment/IP/Retail sales, China Manufacturing PMI, UK final GDP, French/EU/Italy prelim CPI, Polish CPI, US PCE core, MNI Chic PMI, final Michigan (fri).

Historical bullets

BONDS: EGB/Gilt - Watch the Gilt/Bund spread

Aug-24 14:22
  • EGBs and Bund remains under pressure once again today.
  • Rate traders continue to price more aggressive hikes from the ECB, which has helped longer dated bonds lower.
  • Desks have also favoured positioning for a Hawk Powell this Friday. Bund has so far found some support at 150.00, but better is seen at 149.87, which equates to 1.4% in 10yr Yield.
  • Peripherals are mostly wider, but in small at the time of typing.
  • Italy leads by just 1.7bp, and Greece is flat against the German 10yr.
  • Watch the Gilt/Bund spread, cleared out the small resistance that was 128.9bps earlier, and now eye 133.16bps, the March and 2022 high, and also the widest print since 28th April 2016.
  • Spread is at 131.2bps (6.1bps wider).
  • Volumes in Gilt are dominated by spreads, first notice is on the 30th, but UK have a Monday Bank holiday, and investors will likely favour doing the majority by the weekend.
  • Half the front month volume is spread related, roll pace stands at 30%
  • Looking ahead, tomorrow sees German final GDP, US (2nd) GDP, and Core PCE.

MNI: US NAR JUL PENDING HOME SALES INDEX 89.8 V 90.7 IN JUN

Aug-24 14:00



  • MNI: US NAR JUL PENDING HOME SALES INDEX 89.8 V 90.7 IN JUN
  • US NAR JUL PENDING HOME SALES -1.0% MOM; -19.9% YOY

US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK, Weekly Midcurve Put Spd

Aug-24 13:59
  • 9,000 wk3 TY 114.5/115.5 put spds, 11 at 0949:02ET ref 117-13