LOOK AHEAD: Economic Data Calendar 04/09/2026

• RES 3: 133.32 - High Mar ‘26
• RES 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 21 
• RES 1: 127.88/128.42- 50-dma (cont) / High Jun 15 
• PRICE: 127.06 @ 16:27 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 126.27 - Low May 20 and a key support 
• SUP 2: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999
• SUP 3: 121.49 - 50.0% retrace of the 1990 - 2020 major bull leg 

JGB futures continue to trade below the June high. A bearish theme remains intact. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose 126.27, the May 20 low, where a break would confirm a continuation of the primary downtrend. Key near-term resistance is 128.42, the Jun 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would instead signal a short-term reversal and highlight a potential break of the 50-dma - at 127.88.  

6.7450-6.7500 ranges roughly held for USD/CNH through Wednesday trade. The pair tracks near 6.7480 in early Thursday trade, after CNH was unchanged for Wednesday's session, underperforming softer USD indices (BBDXY index fell 0.18%). The short-term narrative of post-Fed dollar weakness can be seen by the surge in precious metals on Wednesday, as spot gold has rallied over 4% on the session, reaching as high as $4,265/oz. This keeps recent lows for the BBDXY index 1201.22 within reach (last near 1203.5). Spot USD/CNY finished up at 6.7491, while the CNY basket tracker was little changed at 101.95. 

• Yesterday's RatingDog services PMI rounded out a soft update for PMIs in July. The Citi China EASI is trending back lower to -42.6 currently, not far from June lows. Consensus expectations for 2026 GDP growth remain unchanged though at 4.6%, see the orange line on the chart below (the white line is the Citi China EASI).
• Runs on the board from earlier in the year is helping keep expectations steady for full year growth, while easing/policy support expectations appear to be more focused on fiscal policy in the near term.
• This backdrop may have helped stabilize USD/CNH sentiment, but the pair remains comfortably under all key EMAs (50-day resistance rests near 6.7800). We get more information on the macro backdrop, tomorrow with July trade data, them July inflation is out this Sunday.
• Via BBG: "President Donald Trump is preparing to impose tariffs and minimum prices on imported polysilicon, a bid to boost domestic production of the material as well as the US semiconductors and solar panels made from it." See this link. 

Fig 1: China Citi EASI Trending Lower, But 2026 GDP Growth Expectations Holding Up 

Source: Citi/Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

• RES 3: 95.636 - 76.4% retrace of Oct’ 25 - Jan’ 26 downleg (cont)
• RES 2: 95.472 - 61.8% retrace of Oct’ 25 - Mar’ 26 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 95.270/95.425 - High Jun 26 / High Mar 2 (cont)
• PRICE: 95.035 @ 16:25 BST Aug 05
• SUP 1: 94.875 - Low Jul 24 
• SUP 2: 94.780 - Low Mar 23 / 30 low (cont) and a key M/T support
• SUP 3: 94.664 - 76.4% retracement of the 2008 - 2020 rally 

Weakness since Jun 26 in Aussie 10-yr futures appears corrective and a M/T bullish trend sequence remains intact. The contract has bounced from its recent lows - an indication that the correction may be over. However, a resumption of weakness would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement and open 94.780, the Mar 23 / 30 low on the continuation chart and a key medium-term support. The bull trigger is 95.270, the Jun 26 high.