EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Fresh Cycle High
Sep-10 14:20
- RES 4: 6673.37 2.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 3: 6617.73 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 6565.25 Intraday high
- PRICE: 6557.50 @ 07:23 BST Sep 10
- SUP 1: 6462.58/6371.75 20-day EMA / Low Sep 2
- SUP 2: 6365.35 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1 and a key support
A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the latest pullback has once again proved to be a shallow correction. The contract has traded to a fresh cycle today, breaching the Sep 5 high of 6541.75. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 6600.00 handle next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is 6462.58, the 20-day EMA.
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GILTS: Most Of Early Rally Holds
Aug-11 13:57
Gilts have been in a bit of a holding pattern since the opening rally, with the dovish details of the KPMG-REC report on jobs limiting pullbacks, even as Bunds trade around/at session lows.
- Futures topped out at 92.37 before settling back around 92.25.
- Initial resistance of note located at the August 5 high (92.84). Bulls look to regain momentum after a close below the 20-day EMA.
- Yields ~4bp lower across the curve.
- 2s and 10s hold in the lower half of the ranges witnessed since early June, 2s last 3.865%, 10s last 4.565%.
- 2s10s and 5s30s continue to trade around 70bp & 140bp, respectively.
- 10s outperform Bunds by 4bp, spread into 187bp.
- SONIA futures flat to +3.5.
- BoE-dated OIS prices 18bp of easing through year-end and 28bp through February. Contracts are 0.5-2.0bp more dovish on the day.
- Domestic focus is squarely on tomorrow’s labour market report.
- With a continually softening labour market a necessity for another BoE cut in November, Tuesday’s report will be keenly watched by the market. Unlike last month’s release there is no obvious smoking gun to watch out for as the revision to the flash payrolls print for June has returned the focus back to the wider report.
- Click for our full preview of the release.
OPTIONS: Expiries for Aug12 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Aug-11 13:55
- EUR/USD: $1.1500(E1.5bln), $1.1535-50(E1.2bln), $1.1650(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Y147.30-50($1.6bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6560-75(A$1.5bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3785($664mln)
SOFR: Steepener Flow
Aug-11 13:41
Recent steepener interest in SOFR spreads:
- SFRH6/Z6 paper paid -43.0 on 9K.
- SFRH6/U6 paper paid -36.0 on ~5.5K
