EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Fresh Cycle High

The price side of the advance Q2 national accounts release was mixed, with the GDP deflator on the soft side whilst, more notably, core PCE inflation moderated by less than expected. The upside surprise suggests some scope for a surprise in June’s core PCE print tomorrow (previous unrounded estimates were averaging around 0.28% M/M) although our bias is that most of this Q2 surprise will be seen earlier in the quarter after revisions. 

• The GDP deflator surprised softer with a 2.0% annualized increase (cons 2.2) in Q2 after 3.8% in Q1.
• There was widespread moderation here, with personal consumption easing from 3.7% to 2.1%, private domestic investment from 1.2% to 0.6%, government consumption & investment from a strong 4.6% to 2.7% and a moderation in exports (from 5.3% to -1.2%) outpacing imports (from2.1% to -0.8%).
• Core PCE inflation meanwhile was surprisingly strong as it moderated by less than expected to 2.54% (cons 2.3) after 3.53% in Q1.  
• We had seen unrounded analyst core PCE estimates average 0.28% M/M after the June round for CPI/PPI/import prices with a chance of a small upward revision for May judging by PPI. That estimate, assuming no revision, would have seen a 2.30% increase – we imagine the upward surprise was more likely concentrated earlier in the quarter.
• Looking within overall PCE inflation, an acceleration in durable goods inflation bucked the quarterly trend, accelerating from 2.9% o 3.1% annualized for its strongest since 1Q25, whilst nondurable goods inflation slowed to -1.3% after jumping 3.0% in Q1.
• PCE services inflation meanwhile eased from 4.3% to 2.9% for its softest since 4Q20. 

• +2,000 WNU5 117-02, post time offer at 0918:59ET, DV01 $380,000.
• The 30Y ultra contract trades 117-02last (-16)

• RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6457.75 High Jul 28      
• PRICE: 6411.50 @ 14:18 BST Jul 30  
• SUP 1: 6391.50/6322.32 Low Jul 24 / 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 6241.00 Low Jul 16    
• SUP 3: 6173.21 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6130.75 Low Jun 25  

The trend set-up in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Recent cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6477.31, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6173.21. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6322.32.