EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H6) Still Looking For Gains
- RES 4: 7080.92 0.764 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 7021.79 0.618 proj Nov 21 - Dec 11 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 7014.00 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 7006.75 High Jan 7
- PRICE: 6954.00 @ 14:32 GMT Jan 9
- SUP 1: 6873.57 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 6771.50 Low Dec 18 and a key support
- SUP 3: 6684.50 Low Nov 24
- SUP 4: 6583.00 Low Nov 21 and a reversal trigger
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and price continues to trade above key near-term support at 6771.50, the Dec 18 low. Clearance of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement and would also highlight a possible short-term reversal. For bulls, sights are on key resistance at 7014.00, the Oct 30 high. A move through this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.
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GILTS: Firmer Alongside Tsys, No Reaction To Ramsden
Gilts have ticked higher alongside Treasuries, with a block buyer in U.S. TU futures helping generate the latest rally amid limited macro news flow.
- Futures register fresh session highs at 91.29 as a result. Bulls have forced the contract above initial resistance at 91.16 and a close above would switch focus to the next resistance at the November 27 high (91.93).
- Yields 3-4bp lower, curve marginally flatter.
- 2s, 30s and 50s have unwound yesterday’s sell off, while 5s and 10s are 2-3bp above Monday’s closing levels.
- TSC comments from BoE Deputy Governor Ramsden lean a little dovish (see recent bullet for greater details), although that hasn’t generated much of a market reaction in the short end.
- SONIA futures flat to +4.0.
- BoE-dated OIS pricing ~22bp of easing for this month, 29bp through February and 35bp through March, liquid contracts 0.5-2.5bp more dovish on the day.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA (bp) |
Dec-25 | 3.756 | -21.8 |
Feb-26 | 3.686 | -28.8 |
Mar-26 | 3.621 | -35.3 |
Apr-26 | 3.528 | -44.6 |
Jun-26 | 3.487 | -48.7 |
Jul-26 | 3.431 | -54.3 |
Sep-26 | 3.420 | -55.4 |
GBP: Fade in GBP accompanies Ramsden on Restrictiveness
Ramsden's comments on restrictiveness may be pressuring GBP here - as noted above he says he sees neutral as close to 3% and judges that the "policy stance continues to be restrictive."
- GBPUSD weakness presses the pair to new daily lows and trade within range of initial support into 1.3267. A break below would open the 20-day EMA intersecting at 1.3235.
- Concurrently, EURGBP trades a new daily high of 0.8743 but the strength is generally short-lived - mirroring the lack of any follow-through move in SONIA markets.
BOE: Neutral rate 3.25-3.50% "is about right"
- Mann: "I continue to believe that the MaPS assessment of a neutral rate of around 3.25-3.5% for Bank Rate is about right. This is higher than the neutral rate embodied in the forecast – where long-term R* was estimated to have to fallen to around 0-1% with a most likely estimate of ¼ percent in real terms. Together with the inflation target this implies a nominal neutral rate of 2¼ percent."
- Some dovish comments in her Report but the above is in line with her previous view.
