STIR: $-Bloc Markets little Changed Over the Past Week, Except In The US
Mar-07 02:13
In the $-bloc, rate expectations through December 2025 have remained largely unchanged over the past week, except in the US, where pricing softened by 12bps. New Zealand and Canada saw no change, while Australia eased 4bps.
- Australia: The key development was Q4 GDP, which met consensus expectations at +0.6% q/q and +1.3% y/y, up from +0.3% q/q and +0.8% y/y in Q3. The annual figure exceeded the RBA’s February forecast of 1.1% y/y. Meanwhile, RBA Deputy Governor Hauser reiterated that policy decisions will remain meeting-by-meeting, emphasising that while progress toward the CPI target is encouraging, it is too soon to declare victory. The RBA will closely monitor trade tensions and respond if inflation rises as a result.
- Canada: Q4 GDP exceeded expectations, printing at 2.6% annualized versus 1.7% estimate. However, market focus remains on US tariffs on Canada and Canada’s potential retaliatory measures, which continue to generate uncertainty.
- US: Economic data remains mixed. The February ADP job gain came in weaker than expected ahead of today’s payrolls data, while ISM Services data surprised to the upside.
- Looking ahead to December 2025, the projected official rates and cumulative easing across the $-bloc are as follows: US (FOMC): 3.59%, -75bps; Canada (BOC): 2.40%, -60bps; Australia (RBA): 3.45%, -65bps; and New Zealand (RBNZ): 3.04%, -71bps.
Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
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CHINA: Bond Futures Stay Calm as Markets Return from Leave.
Feb-05 02:04
- China’s bond futures showed little regard for the uncertainty abounding from the impending trade war.
- Whilst equities are down, (Hang Seng -1.15%, CSI 300 -0.30%) bonds futures are marginally lower at the open.
- China’s 10YR Bond Mar 25 future is lower by -0.05 at 109.35
- China’s 2YR Bond Mar25 future is lower by -.044 at 102.80
- Prior to the Lunar New Year Break the 10YR future had bounced on the 20-day EMA and moved higher and remains above that technical level of 109.077.
- China’s 2YR Bond future is trending below the 20-day EMA of 102.83 and is at the midpoint of it and the 50-day EMA of 102.78.
- Economic data this week has been softer with PMI Manufacturing and PMI Services weaker, but likely impacted by the earlier than expected Lunar Holidays.
- Over the coming weekend, China will release its January PPI data which is expected to show the deflationary pressures for producers remains a key issue.
CHINA: Caixin PMI Services Decline for January.
Feb-05 01:57
- China’s PMI Services for January declined to 51.0, from 52.2; likely impacted by the earlier than usual Lunar New Year Holiday.
- This follows Monday’s release of the China PMI Manufacturing at 50.1.
- The overall PMI composite saw a decline to 51.1 for January from 51.4 prior.
- The PMI services result was the lowest reading since September and saw the employment component decline to 48.8 to mark the lowest contribution since April.
- Additionally, the prices charged component saw a decline versus the prior month.
- It is likely that this data release will be of little cause for concern due to the impact of the holidays.
CNY: USD/CNY Rises Post LNY Break, USD/CNH Edges Higher
Feb-05 01:53
USD/CNY spot has re-opened higher, the pair last tracking above 7.2800. this fits with the slightly higher USD index levels we've had since the LNY break (onshore markets have been closed since Jan 27). Pre LNY lows in spot were at 7.2376, which also coincided with the simple 100-day MA.
- USD/CNH has gravitated higher, but is well within recent ranges, the pair last close to 7.2930, slightly weaker in CNH terms for the session. The maintains a modestly positive USD/CNH-USD/CNY basis.
- Earlier we had the USD/CNY fixing which steady relative to pre LNY outcomes. The fixing error widened though, suggesting continued onshore push back against yuan depreciation pressures.
- Data in terms of the Caixin services PMI has also just printed, missing estimates at 51.0 (52.4 was the forecast and 52.2 prior). This continues the Jan run of poorer PMI prints, suggesting some loss of economic momentum, although interpretation is tricky given LNY timing at the end of the month.
- BBG notes home sales resumed falling in Jan, but that box office subscriptions were at t record high.
- Also not helping yuan sentiment will be the lack of equity upside , with onshore markets initially opening higher before turning lower. HK markets are also weaker, as markets digest economic data/trade tariffs etc.
