US: Democrats Believe GOP Megabill Will Hand Them Advantage In 2026
May-22 17:56
Liberal pollster Data for Progress has published a new survey claiming that “a majority of voters believe households making more than $400,000 should pay more in taxes, contrary to what has been proposed in the GOP tax plan.”
- Data for Progress adds: “A majority of voters also believe that households making less than $50,000 per year should pay less in taxes, while a plurality believe that households making between $50,000 and $400,000 are already paying the right amount.”
- The survey supports the Democratic Party's assertion that the Republican tax and spending bill is likely to be unpopular with voters. Jake Sherman at Punchbowl News noted that shortly after the GOP megabill passed the House this morning, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said, "this is the day Republicans lost the House."
- The Hill notes that Democrats, "are working to ensure discussion of the bill centers what analysts say will be devastating impacts for America’s poor — especially as the 2026 midterm elections inch closer."
Figure 1: The following groups should pay more, the same, or less taxes
Source: Data for Progress
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $5.7B to Price Tuesday
Apr-22 17:46
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 04/22 $2B #State Street $700M 3NC2 +73, $300M 3NC2 SOFR+95, $1B 5Y +85
- 04/22 $1.85B #Kinder Morgan $1.1B 5Y +120, $750M 10Y +150
- 04/22 $1.1B #NY Life Global $700M 3Y +60, $400M 3Y SOFR+88
- 04/22 $750M #Brookfield Asset Management 10Y +140
- 04/22 $Benchmark OCP 5Y, +10Y investor calls
- 04/22 $Benchmark Rentokil investor calls
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
Apr-22 17:35
RRP usage climbs to $137.951B this afternoon from $114.114B yesterday. Usage had fallen to $54.772B last Wednesday, April 16 -- lowest level since April 2021. Conversely, usage had surged to the highest level since December 31, 2024 on Monday, March 31: $399.167B. The number of counterparties at 42.
STIR: Fed Rate Path Climb Tempered By Trade Headlines
Apr-22 17:34
- Fed Funds implied rates have pared some of their sharp shift higher when Bloomberg first reported that US Tsy Sec Bessent said at a closed-door investor summit that he sees de-escalation with China whilst the current situation is unsustainable.
- The trimming of the day’s increase has come with subsequent headlines from Reuters re it likely to be a “slog” and Politico reporting the US is close on Japan and India trade agreements but with details suggesting less progress.
- Going against the trimming somewhat, a modest tail in the 2Y Tsy auction at 1300ET.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 3bp May, 18bp Jun, 39bp Jul, 58bp Sep and 89bp Dec.
- SOFR implied yields currently see largest increases in the M6 (+8bp), whilst the terminal remains in the U6 as it climbs to 3.15% (+7.5bp) for almost one additional 25bp cut priced vs pre-Liberation Day levels.
- Today’s Fedspeak from Vice Chair Jefferson (permanent voter) and Harker (retiring June) hasn’t moved markets, seemingly taking a deliberately non-confrontational approach amidst Trump’s latest demands for lower rates. Still to come today:
- 1340ET - Kashkari ('26 voter) at Chamber of Commerce Global Summit (Q&A only)
- 1430ET - Barkin (non-voter) fireside chat at innovation summit (Q&A only)
- 1800ET - Gov. Kugler (permanent voter) on monetary policy transmission (text + Q&A). She said Apr 7 that inflation was now the more pressing issue with regards to tariffs and that the Fed needs to make sure it doesn't rise. She warned the tariff impact should be consequential.
