US: Democrat Favourability Continues To Drop, Trump Struggles With Inflation
Aug-08 17:43
A new CNBC 'All-America Economic Survey' has found that, “Favorability of the Democratic Party among registered voters sank to a net -32 percentage points, the lowest rating for either party going back to at least 1996.”
- The survey also noted: “The public disapproves of the job Trump is doing as president by a 51%-46% margin, up from 51%-44%... Republicans remain solidly behind the president and Democrats solidly against.”
- CNBC adds: "More troubling for the president, however, could be that the survey shows positive approval of only one of seven key issues, with the public holding negative views on his handling of tariffs, inflation, taxes and federal spending."
- Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the survey’s Democratic pollster, said: “What seemed to be keeping President Trump’s overall approval level from really dropping down was the strong economy and the credit that he got from the public. He cannot rely on that at this point.”
- Micah Roberts, the survey's Republican pollster, said: “Trump’s approval is stable, but his individual ratings are down on issue after issue, except for tariffs. Economic optimism is higher, but there’s been no relief in this data from inflation.”
Figure 1: Trump Approval on Issues
Source: CBNC
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US: More Trump Headlines
Jul-09 17:38
More Trump headlines from Bloomberg - not particularly market moving, Treasury futures already extending highs in the lead up to the June FOMC minutes releaser at 1400ET:
- "MORE TARIFF LETTERS COMING TODAY .. TARIFF FORUMULA BASED ON 'COMMON SENSE'
- ON TARIFF LEVELS: HAVEN'T HAD TOO MANY COMPLAINTS"
- "RELEASING BRAZIL TARIFF NUMBER TODAY OR TOMORROW MORNING .. BRAZIL HAS NOT BEEN GOOD TO US"
- "WILL LOOK AT UKRAINE REQUEST FOR PATRIOTS"
- "CHINA PAYING A LOT OF TARIFFS TO THE US .. I HAVE A GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH XI"
US TSYS: Pre-June FOMC Minutes/Post-Auction Update
Jul-09 17:31
- Treasury futures continue to extend session highs after the small 0.3bp stop 10Y auction re-open, focus on the June FOMC minutes release at the top of the hour.
- The minutes should underline the Committee's patience in making its next rate move amid heightened tariff-related economic uncertainty, as encapsulated in the meeting's Dot Plot which showed participants largely divided between no cuts and 2 cuts by year-end.
- Projected rate cut pricing has gained momentum vs morning (*) levels: Jul'25 at -1.7bp (-1.2bp), Sep'25 at -18.6bp (-17.3bp), Oct'25 at -33.7bp (-31.7bp), Dec'25 at 52bp (-49.3bp).
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures back near Monday's open, +13.5 at 111-06.5, technical resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high. Volumes slightly below average for this time of day, TYU5 under 990k. Curves have reversed mildly steeper levels: 2s10s -1.867 at 48.587, 5s30s +.042 at 95.225.
- Cross asset update: Bloomberg US$ index near steady (BBDXY +.20 at 1196.84), Gold firmer (+10.87 at 3312.79), Crude firmer (WTI +0.45 at 68.78), Stocks firmer (SPX eminis +18.5 at 6290.5).
US: Trump Approval Rating Steady As Tariffs Take Centre Stage Again
Jul-09 17:31
President Donald Trump's approval rating has held relatively steady over the past couple of weeks, with a refocus on immigration and national security appearing to put a floor under his net approval. According to The New York Times, Trump's aggregated approval sits at net -8%, largely unchanged since early May.
- According to Silver Bulletin, "44.9 percent of Americans approve of the job he’s doing and 51.5 percent disapprove. That’s a net approval rating of -6.7. Last week? It was -5.5. And the week before that it was -6.0. Over the last two weeks, Trump’s net approval on immigration (-4.2 —> -3.3), the economy (-13.0 —> -11.9), and inflation (-23.6 —> -23.8) also haven’t moved much."
- Silver Bulletin continues, noting this week's refocus on trade and tariffs: "But Trump’s net approval on trade/tariffs has declined from -12.7 to -14.5. We may be in for some more movement on the tariff approval front in the coming weeks ... It’s unclear how all of this will shake out. But last time Trump’s tariff policy took center stage, his approval on the issue (and overall) fell rapidly."
Figure 1: Trump Approval Rating
Source: Silver Bulletin
