RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Solar Forecast
See the latest CWE solar forecast for peak-load hours starting this morning for the next seven days. Solar peak forecast generation in CWE has been revised upward towards the end of next week by as much as 6.5GW to reach 28% load factors over 1-2 October.
CWE Solar for 26 September- 2 October
- 26 September: 30.13GW
- 27 September: 30.97GW
- 28 September: 38.36GW
- 29 September: 39.12GW
- 30 September: 40.25GW
- 1 October: 44.42GW
2 October: 44.86GW
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6572.45 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and all-time High
- PRICE: 6449.25 @ 07:22 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: 6362.75 Low Aug 20
- SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 6304.76 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 6304.76, the 50-day EMA.
WTI TECHS: (V5) Bear Threat Remains Present Despite Recent Gains
- RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $66.56/69.36 - High AUg 4 / High Jul 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: $64.33 @ 07:17 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13
- SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest round of short-term gains appear corrective - for now. A key support at $61.99, the Jun 30 low, has recently been breached, strengthening a bearish theme. A continuation lower would open $57.71, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high.
BUNDS: Early widening against OAT
- The German Bund remains fairly unchanged and within past ranges, the contract goes bid post Cash open, but still inside the initial support and resistance.
- These stands circa 128.59 for support, the 2.80% Yield level, and the initial resistance is still at 129.62.
- The French OAT underperforms after PM Bayrou called for a Confidence Vote on the 8th September, Bund/OAT spread widens by 2bps on the Open.
- There are no Tier 1 Data out of Europe, the French Consumer Confidence isn't a market mover. Out of the US, prelim Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence are the Data release for Today.
- Main focus on the Data front is all on Friday, a packed day for Data.
- Bond Traders will look to conclude Rolling their Gilt and Treasury rolling positions Today and Tomorrow. Friday will also focus on Month End, these are tiny for Europe, a non event for the UK, but decent for the US, just above the August average.
- SUPPLY: €3bn 2yr BTP (equates to 17.4k short 2yr BTPS) should have limited impact. {us} US Sells $69bn of 2yr Notes, should weigh.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Villeroy, BoE Mann.
