RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Solar Forecast

• RES 4: $74.66 - High Jan 22  
• RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11
• RES 2: $68.36/72.28 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and key resistance
• RES 1: $64.85 Low Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.  
• PRICE: $57.80 @ 07:10 BST Apr 9 
• SUP 1: $56.16 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 2: $54.26 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $56.81 - 2.382 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing
• SUP 4: $50.00 - Psychological round number  

A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact following the recent impulsive sell-off and the contract has again traded to a fresh cycle low, today. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat and. Sights are on $56.16 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.

• A Choppy Cash open for EGBs and Bund, selling interest keeps the German Bund heavy after Tariffs come into place, a whopping 104% for China.
• Compared to the US Tnotes (TYM5), Bund has seen a far more stable session, the US 10yr already trades in well over a 1 big figure range, the Yield had a quick test above 4.50%, printed a 4.5114% high, but has so far found support just ahead of the 110.00 Figure in futures.
• Bund has broken Yesterday's low, all Cash led, next support is seen towards ~128.70.
• There are no Tier 1 Data for the session, US Wholesales Inventories will be final reading, focus this Week is on the US CPI Tomorrow.
• Also Today, BOE FPC Meeting Record Released, and FOMC Meeting Minutes are scheduled.
• SUPPLY: UK £4.5bn 2030 (Equates to 21.9k Gilt) should weigh. Portugal OT Auction (won't impact Govies. US Sells $39bn of 10yr reopening.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Escriva, Knot, Villeroy, Cipollone, Fed Barkin.

• Morgan Stanley has added an extra 25bp cut to its 2025 forecasts. It already was looking for sequential cuts from May to August with another cut in November and it now also looks for a September cut too (so sequential cuts May to Nov). This brings its end 2025 forecast down to 3.25% from 3.50%.
• MS notes that "The door to delivering these, we think, will be opened through a downwards revision of inflation forecasts at the May meeting, with a high chance of the BoE removing the reference to maintaining restrictiveness too."
• MS keeps 2x25bp cuts in 2026, albeit in Q1/2 rather than "backloaded". This means that MS now looks for a 2.75% terminal rate (previously 3.00%). It notes that this brings the terminal rate to "around what we think most MPC members see as UK's new neutral rate (~3%)."
• On the chances of a 50bp cut in May, MS notes that "While we think that the current scale of restrictiveness is hard to justify, the experience of the back-loaded hiking cycle, divisions on the MPC and the very hawkish starting point from the February MPR all suggest to us that a May 50bp move is not likely – not implausible, given the scale of restrictiveness, but not likely."