NOK: Crude Weakness Narrows Gap To Support In NOKSEK
May-15 10:59
Continued weakness in oil prices has weighed on the NOK this morning, with NOKSEK down 0.6% at 0.9345. The oil moves, spurred by hopes of a US-Iran nuclear deal, have dominated any impact from this morning’s stronger-than-expected mainland GDP print (1.0% Q/Q vs 0.6% cons) and in-line 2025 revised budget.
- The pullback is considered corrective for now, with initial support at the 20-day EMA (0.9325) untested. Key support is seen at 0.9301, the trendline drawn from the April 9 low.
- The Q1 GDP release will be a hawkish input into Norges Bank’s rate path on the margin, but shouldn’t change consensus expectations for a first cut in September 2025.
- The Norwegian calendar is light until April LFS unemployment data next Thursday, leaving NOK exposed to broader global risk/oil sentiment.
Figure 1: NOKSEK Since 2023
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US TSYS: Broad Consolidation Of Yesterday’s Large Rally
Apr-15 10:55
- Treasuries broadly consolidate yesterday’s large rally, albeit with a larger intraday sell-off for 30s as relative weakness remains in play.
- Today sees the Empire manufacturing report offer the first regional Fed survey for April business conditions amidst tariffs (although its volatile nature will cloud any surprises) whilst import prices will be watched for a final steer on core PCE estimates (unlikely to move more than a few bps from a ‘low’ rounded 0.1% M/M).
- President Trump’s reaction to China halting Boeing jet deliveries and purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US companies – per Bloomberg reporting – will also be watched.
- With earnings season increasingly getting underway, Johnson & Johnson beat adjusted EPS estimates ($2.77 vs $2.60) for Q1.
- Cash yields are 1.5-2.5bp lower, with 5s again outperforming.
- TYM5 trades at 110-19 (-04+) after overnight modestly extending yesterday’s sizeable gains with a high of 110-27+. Volumes have seen a second more typical overnight session, currently at 310k.
- Resistance is seen at 111-00+ (20-day EMA) but a bear threat remains present with support at 109-08 (Apr 11 low).
- Data: International prices Mar (0830ET), Empire manufacturing Apr (0830ET)
- Fedspeak: Cook at alumni event (1910ET, text only) – see STIR bullet
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $48B 52W & $70B 6W bill sales (1130ET)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Resistance In WTI Remains Intact
Apr-15 10:50
- On the commodity front, the trend condition in Gold remains bullish and price is trading at its recent highs. The yellow metal last week traded through $3167.8, the Apr 3 high, to resume the primary uptrend and trade to fresh all-time highs. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 3077.5, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 3291.8, a 1.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing.
- In the oil space, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the rally last Wednesday is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $54.26, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 11 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.85, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
EUR: FX Exchange traded Option
Apr-15 10:45
FX Exchange traded Options, cover the next 3 ECB meeting (April, June, July).
- EURUSD (8th Aug) 1.1800/1.1850cs, bought for 0.0984 and 0.0994 in 1k.
