COMMODITIES: Crude Edges Higher, Gold Continues To Falter

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 146.19/148.03 Intraday high / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: 145.19 @ 16:48 BST Jun 24
• SUP 1: 144.80 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 144.34 Low Jun 18  
• SUP 3: 142.80 Low Jun 13   
• SUP 4: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support   

USDJPY has reversed lower from Monday’s high. This undermines a recent bullish theme and yesterday’s price pattern appears to be a shooting star candle formation. If correct, it signals a reversal of the recent bull cycle. Support to watch lies at 144.80, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. On the upside, a move above Monday’s high of 148.03 would reinstate a bullish theme.     

• WTI has recouped some losses during US hours but remains down sharply on the day as the Israel-Iran conflict has de-escalated.
• WTI Aug 25 is down by 5.8% at $64.5/bbl.
• The geopolitical risk premium is unwinding as the risk to Iranian oil infrastructure or disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has eased.
• Market uncertainty is still high with trade disputes and OPEC output normalisation impacting demand and supply.
• For now, the sell-off is considered corrective and the pullback has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind.
• Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.52, which has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $58.87, the May 30 low.
• On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.39, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has fallen by 1.5% to $3,317/oz, taking the yellow metal through the 50-dma support for the first time since mid-May.
• The move came on the back of the tentative ceasefire struck between Iran and Israel and it has seen gold narrow the gap with the June lows of $3,293.64, which form first support.
• Despite this, a bullish theme in gold remains intact and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Resistance at $3,435.6, the May 7 high, has recently been pierced.

Minneapolis Fed Pres Kashkari (2026 voter) doesn't really comment on current monetary policy in a town hall Q&A session. Asked "do you see a scenario when where inflation is not at 2%, but rates still have to come down?", Kashkari responds in "balanced" fashion similar to Chair Powell's commentary at last week's FOMC meeting and in prior appearances:

• "In the case where, let's say, inflation is still too high and the unemployment the labor market is weak, that's a particularly challenging environment for a central bank because our two goals are in tension. They're not balancing each other out. We're kind of missing on both sides of our mandate. In that situation, if the labor market were to deteriorate very quickly or dramatically, I could imagine a scenario where we say, hey, we need to adjust rates to support the labor market. We have said when our two goals are in tension, we will take a balanced approach. What does a balanced approach actually mean? It's going to depend on what's happening in the economy in that time. I'm not forecasting this. I'm just saying it is a plausible scenario."