OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Support In Gold
Jul-25 10:35
* On the commodity front, Gold has pulled back from Tuesday's high. Short-term weakness is conside...
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: New Home Sales, Fed Chair Powell to Senate
Jun-25 10:31
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 06/25 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-2.6%, --)
- 06/25 0800 Chicago Fed Goolsbee podcast appearance
- 06/25 1000 Fed Ch Powell Semiannual Testimony to Senate
- 06/25 1000 New Home Sales (743k, 693k), MoM (10.9%, -6.7%)
- 06/25 ---- Building Permits (1.393M, 1.393M), MoM (-2.0%, 0.0%)
- 06/25 1130 US Tsy $28B 2Y FRN Note re-open & $63B 17W bill auctions
- 06/25 1300 US Tsy $70B 5Y Note (91282CNK3)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
STIR: 20% Odds of Fed Cutting Next Month, Day Two Of Powell Testimony
Jun-25 10:30
- Fed Funds implied rates have softened a little further for the next two meetings but are broadly unchanged on the day for end-2025.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 5bp Jul, 25.5bp Sep, 41bp Oct, 60bp Dec, 69bp Jan and 82bp Mar.
- SOFR implied yields are up to 1.5bp higher on the day looking out to end-2027 contracts.
- The implied terminal yield of 3.125% (SFRZ6, -1bp) holds the week’s slide for closer to 5 rather than 4 cuts ahead, helped by a slide in oil prices and a surprisingly dovish Bowman on Monday (even if a variety of other FOMC members appear more patient).
- Today’s Fedspeak is unlikely to be as interesting as yesterday:
- 1000ET - Powell’s second day of Congressional testimonies, this time in front of the Senate committee. It follows yesterday’s House appearance where he noted many rate paths are possible although with somewhat selective headlines giving a dovish skew. As with last week’s FOMC presser, he implied that the September FOMC is the next ‘live’ meeting.
- 0800ET – Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter, dove) appears on a podcast. He’s already spoken this week, saying on Monday that the tariff impact hasn’t been as feared on inflation and that the Fed can cut rates if tariff inflation doesn't come. "Now we're trying to figure out is this all there is or is there about to be something showing up in the inflation data."
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Bull Cycle Remains Intact
Jun-25 10:28
- RES 4: 112-23 High May 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 112-04+ High May 2
- RES 2: 111-30/31+ 76.4% of May 1-22 downleg / 1.0% 10-dma env
- RES 1: 111-24 Intraday high
- PRICE: 111-20 @ 11:17 BST Jun 25
- SUP 1: 110-23 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-10+/109-28 Low Jun 16 / Low Jun 6 / 11
- SUP 3: 109-12+ Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: 109-09+ Low Apr 11 and key support
Treasury futures are holding on to this week’s gains. Price has traded above resistance at 111-14+, the Jun 5 high and 61.8% of the May 1 - 22 downleg. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens a bullish cycle and has opened 111-30, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of 111-30 would strengthen current conditions. Initial pivot support to watch lies at 110-23, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would signal a potential reversal.
