OIL: Crude Down Through Today, IEA Forecasts Out Later
Oil prices took a step down at the start of today’s APAC trading after NBC reported that a top Iranian official said that the country would “commit to never making nuclear weapons” and “getting rid of its stockpiles of highly-enriched Uranium” in exchange for reduced sanctions. It has continued trending down through the session to be over 2% lower on the day.
- WTI is down 2.3% to $61.68/bbl off the intraday low of $61.36 but remains around 6% higher in May helped by hopes of a US-China trade deal which would improve the demand outlook. Brent is 2.3% lower at $64.60/bbl after falling to $64.32. Both benchmarks remain in a downtrend but well off initial support. The USD index is down 0.2% but unable to provide assistance to crude.
- CCIC Singapore has been sanctioned for inspecting Iranian crude shipments destined for China but not reporting them, as reported by Bloomberg. It signals that sanction-breaking shipments are being increasingly scrutinised as US President Trump has sounded tougher on Iran.
- The IEA’s April report is published later today. Its forecasts for the market tend to be less optimistic than OPEC’s and so it is likely to be watched closely.
- Later Fed Chair Powell speaks on the Framework Review and Barr also appears. In terms of data, US April retail sales, PPI, IP, May Philly Fed and jobless claims are released as well as Q1/March UK GDP, IP, trade, euro area Q1 preliminary GDP/employment and March IP. The ECB’s Cipollone, Elderson, de Guindos and BoE’s Dhingra also speak.
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ASIA STOCKS: Strong Regional Rally With China Down.
A BBG report suggests that the escalating trade war is having a material impact on the money investors have placed in Chinese ETFs. Data suggests that US$3.6bn has been withdrawn in early April following the imposition of tariffs.
Alibaba and Tencent backed Zhipu has begun an initial public offering as soon as this year, angling to become the first of several prominent ChatGPT-competitors to tap public markets.
Many of Asia’s bourses rose today with the US President floating a potential tariff pause, giving autos a reprieve.
- China’s bourses were the exception today. As the Hang Seng edged higher by +0.20%, the onshore bourses drifted lower with CSI 300 down -0.07, Shanghai down -0.07 and Shenzhen down -0.48%
- The KOSPI had a very strong day today rising +1%, following on from yesterday's gain of +0.95%.
- Singapore’s FTSE Straits Times was one of the regions best performers rising +1.8%, following yesterday’s gain of +1.04%.
- Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is holding onto modest gains of +0.20% following yesterday's outsized rally of +1.79%.
- The Jakarta Composite is up yet again and continues to perform well, rising +1.3% today, from yesterday’s gains of +1.70%.
- India’s NIFTY 50 has risen +2.1% in early trading, following on from yesterday’s gains of +1.92%.
BOBL TECHS: (M5) Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 120.20 High Dec 12 ‘24 (cont)
- RES 3: 120.000 Psychological round number
- RES 2: 119.960 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 119.470 High Apr 11
- PRICE: 119.340 @ 05:45 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 118.336/117.680 20-day EMA / Low Apr 9 / 1
- SUP 2: 117.410 Low Mar 27
- SUP 3: 117.126 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 117.080 Low Mar 25 and a key short-term support
Bobl futures continue to trade below their recent highs. The latest move down - for now, appears corrective. The early April rally resulted in a break of key resistance at 119.040, the Feb 28 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and signals scope for a continuation. The focus is on the 120.000 handle next. The contract has been in overbought territory, a move down has allowed this to unwind. Initial firm support lies at 117.680, the Apr 9 low.
BONDS: NZGBS: Sharp Bull-Flattening In Line With US Tsys
NZGBs closed at session highs in a bull-flattening move, with benchmark yields falling 5–15bps across the curve.
- The short end underperformed, partly due to a sharper rise in NZ food prices, which climbed 3.5% in the year to March 2025, up from 2.4% in February. Stats NZ attributed the increase primarily to higher prices in the grocery food and meat, poultry, and fish categories, which rose 5.1% and 5.3%, respectively.
- Meanwhile, the long end found support from US tsys. Cash US tsys has bull-flattened during today's Asia-Pacific session, with yields flat to 4bps lower. The US calendar is light today, with attention turning to retail sales and remarks from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday.
- Swap rates closed flat to 9bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-2bps firmer across meetings. 30bps of easing is priced for May, with a cumulative 78bps by November 2025.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Non-Resident Bond Holdings data, ahead of Q1 CPI on Thursday.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$275mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond and NZ$225mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond.
