MALAYSIA: Country Wrap:  Russia Wants to Partner with Malaysia

• UBS AG added to a series of growth downgrades for China with the most pessimistic forecast among major banks, predicting the economy will expand just 3.4% this year as US tariffs choke exports.  The Swiss bank, which previously saw growth in 2025 at 4%, maintained its estimate for next year at 3%.   (source BBG)
• China should cut its interest rates or reserve requirement ratio to stimulate its economy in face of pressure from US tariff hikes, Securities Times reported, citing a recent survey of 57 economists it conducted.  Over 80% of the respondents reckon China can cut rates or RRR at an appropriate time
• For additional fiscal stimulus in 2Q, more than 70% of the respondents propose to issue more ultra-long sovereign bonds or cut taxes and fees; about 60% suggest increasing subsidies for lower-income groups; almost half of respondents call for raising the fiscal deficit ratio (source BBG)
• China's bourses were the exception today. As the Hang Seng edged higher by +0.20%, the onshore bourses drifted lower with CSI 300 down -0.07, Shanghai down -0.07 and Shenzhen down -0.48%
• Yuan Reference Rate at 7.2096 Per USD; Estimate 7.3075
• A quiet day for bonds with the CGB 10Yr unchanged at 1.66%

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +7.0) are showing a bull flattener in today’s Sydney session.

• The release of the RBA Minutes for the April Meeting was the key domestic driver. The Board judged that economic conditions were broadly in line with forecasts, with inflation gradually declining and the labour market still tight.
• Risks to the outlook were seen as balanced, including global trade uncertainty and domestic factors like wages and productivity.
• Given this, the Board decided to keep the cash rate unchanged, emphasising the need for caution. Future decisions will depend on incoming data, especially on inflation, employment, and global developments.
• Cash US tsys are flat to 4bps richer, with a flattening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session.
• Cash ACGBs are 1-7bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -2bps.
• The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing flat to +6.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 3bps softer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 36% probability.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Westpac Leading Index, ahead of March’s Employment Report on Thursday.
• The AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 3.50% 21 December 2034 bond tomorrow. 

• RES 4: 1.3305 High Oct 2 ‘24  
• RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 ‘24  
• RES 2: 1.3207 High Apr 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3218 Intraday high        
• PRICE: 1.3214 @ 06:08 BST Apr 15
• SUP 1: 1.2934/1.2709 20-day EMA / Low Apr 7 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.2688 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2654 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28 

GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone and the pair is trading higher today. Price has pierced key resistance at 1.3207, the Apr 3 high and a bull trigger. This confirms the end of the recent Apr 4 - 7 correction, and highlights a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3274 next, the Oct 3 ‘24 high. Support to watch is 1.2934, the 20-day EMA.