MALAYSIA: Country Wrap: BNM on Hold Surprises with SRR Cut:

Oil prices are down sharply again during today’s APAC session following confirmation that an additional 50% tariff on US imports from China would be charged and then the actual implementation of all reciprocal tariffs at midnight EST. China has not responded yet. There has been a general sell off across markets including commodities which are worried that increased protectionism will significantly reduce demand. The USD index is down 0.4%. 

• WTI is down 4.4% to $57.00/bbl following yesterday’s 4.1% decline, remaining above initial support at $56.81. It is off its intraday low of $56.70. The benchmark is now down over 20.0% in April. Brent is 3.7% lower at $60.49 after approaching round-number support of $60 but only falling as far as $60.18. It is now over 19.0% lower this month.
• Price falls have been exacerbated by OPEC’s decision to increase output more than expected this month. At these levels many OPEC countries will face fiscal problems and US drillers won’t invest in new wells.
• Westpac’s Rennie said that if China doesn’t retaliate further, then Brent should be able to hold above $60/bbl (Bloomberg).
• Brent has shifted into bearish contago between December 2025 and December 2026 contracts, according to Bloomberg. Futures structures are showing market conditions easing significantly.
• Industry-based data showed a US crude inventory drawdown of 1.1mn barrels last week. Gasoline rose 200k while distillate fell 1.8mn. The official EIA data is out later today.
• Later the Fed’s Barkin speaks and March FOMC meeting minutes are published. The ECB’s Cipollone participates in a panel and BoE’s FPC meeting record is released.

• RES 4: 5144.09 20-day EMA 
• RES 3: 5047.00 High Apr 4 
• RES 2: 4931.00 Low Jan 13 (cont)
• RES 1: 4910.00 High Apr 7              
• PRICE: 4507.00 @ 06:11 BST Apr 9 
• SUP 1: 4444.00 - Low Apr 7                    
• SUP 2: 4372.46 76.4% of the Oct ‘23 - Mar ‘25 bull cycle (cont)
• SUP 3: 4336.00 Low Nov 28 ‘23 (cont)        
• SUP 4: 4302.00 Low Nov 15 ‘23 (cont)      

Eurostoxx 50 futures remain in a bear cycle following the latest impulsive sell-off and the contract is trading just above its recent lows. Monday’s move down resulted in a breach of a key support at 4699.00, the Nov 19 ‘24 low (cont). This exposes 4372.46, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct ‘23 - Mar ‘25 bull cycle (cont). The contract is oversold, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial resistance is 4910, the Apr 7 high.