CHINA: Country Wrap: Investors Believe in China’s Tech Sector
May-16 05:14
- Beijing has pushed back against a US decision aimed at curbing Chinese-made artificial intelligence chips, a first sign of discord between the world’s two largest economies since they agreed to a trade truce last weekend. In a reminder of the tensions that continue to exist between the Trump administration and China when it comes to technology, the Commerce Department said earlier this week it would issue guidance to make clear that using Huawei Technologies Co.’s Ascend AI chips “anywhere in the world violates US export controls.” (source BBG)
- Almost half of investors surveyed by Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business believe that the trade tensions between China and the United States will present more opportunities than challenges to the Chinese technology sector. Forty-six percent of respondents think the tariff war will have more positive than negative effects on the Chinese tech sector in the long run, according to the findings of the Investor Sentiment Questionnaire Survey (CKISS). Twenty-eight percent anticipate long-term negative impacts, and around 20 percent expect no significant long-term impacts. (source Yicai)
- China's bourses were mostly down with the Hang Seng lower by -0.81%, yet remain over +1.5% higher for the week. The CSI 300 is down -0.57% today and holding onto a 1% gain for the week. Shanghai is down -0.52% yet remains up +0.65% for the week whilst Shenzhen is up today by +0.35% and up +0.95% for the week.
- Taiwan's TAIEX has had an incredible week of inflows and is up +0.20% today and over 4% for the week.
- Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1938 Per USD; Estimate 7.2118
- China’s bonds have moved higher in yield over the week with the CGB 10YR +5bps higher at 1.67%
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GOLD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
Apr-16 05:12
- RES 4: $3370.9 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3347.7 - 1.00 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
- RES 2: $3300.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $3291.8 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- PRICE: $3288.2 @ 06:11 BST Apr 16
- SUP 1: $3167.9/3092.1 - High Apr 3 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2991.0/2956.7 - 50-day EMA / Low Apr 7
- SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and today’s extension reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high and confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 3092.1, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 3291.8, a Fibonacci projection.
ASIA STOCKS: Up Beat China Data Fails to Lift Stocks
Apr-16 05:09
Economic data from China today was better than expected, with first quarter GDP ahead of expectations. Yet this was not enough to give stocks a boost, with most bourses following China’s lead lower.
Suppliers to Nvidia Corp. saw share price declines in Asia after the chipmaker said the US government will begin requiring a license to export its H20 chips to China, an escalation of restrictions.
- Led by the Hang Seng’s decline of -2.53%, onshore bourses were down with CSI 300 -0.93%, Shanghai -0.92% and Shenzhen -2.25% respectively.
- Taiwan’s TAIEX had a very weak day, falling -1.75%.
- The KOSPI couldn’t follow up on two strong days, falling -0.65%.
- In Singapore, the FTSE Straits Times bucked the regional trend to rise +0.28% today whilst the PSEi in the Philippines fell -0.78%.
- Malaysia’s FTSE Malay KLCI was down -0.67% after two successful days of gains.
- Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite did very little today, hovering around where it started.
- India’s NIFTY 50 is up only modestly in morning trading, rising by +0.15% after yesterday’s very strong rise of +2.19%
AUSSIE BONDS: Cheaper, US Retail Sales & Chair Powell Today, Jobs Data Tomorrow
Apr-16 05:08
ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM +1.0) are slightly weaker after dealing in narrow ranges in today's Sydney session.
- In today's Asia-Pac session, US tsys are exhibiting a twist-steepener, with yields ranging from 3bps lower at the short end to 1bp higher further out the curve. Today's US calendar sees: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and NAHB Housing Market Index. Fed Chair Powell will also deliver a speech about the economic outlook.
- Cash ACGBs are 1-3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +3bps.
- The bill strip pricing is -4 to -7, with a flattening bias.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-7bps firmer across meetings today, with September leading. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 21% probability, with a cumulative 114bps of easing priced by year-end.
- (AFR) “The Reserve Bank of Australia has flagged that interest rates could be cut again in May after the federal election, once it has the latest information on inflation and Donald Trump’s trade war.” (see BBG link)
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see The March Employment Report, with consensus expecting +40k jobs created but an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.1%.
