GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Recovery
* RES 4: 1.3568 High Sep 9 * RES 3: 1.3492 High Sep 16 * RES 2: 1.3354 50-day EMA * RES 1: 1.3307 20...
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BOBL TECHS: (Z6) Bearish Cycle
- RES 4: 114.520 High Aug 25 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 114.160 High Aug 27
- RES 2: 113.570/820 High Sep 4 / Low Aug 20
- RES 1: 112.460/113.201 High Nov 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 112.100 @ 06:17 BST Sep 16
- SUP 1: 111.890 Low Sep 15
- SUP 2: 111.867 2.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 20 - 25 price swing
- SUP 3: 111.640 3.000 proj of the Aug 5 - 20 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 111.413 3.236 proj of the Aug 5 - 20 - 25 price swing
A downtrend in Bobl futures remains firmly in place. The contract is trading at its recent lows and a fresh cycle lows yesterday reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode position. This continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 111.867, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 113.201, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 16-Sep | 0700 | Aug | Consumer Inflation Report / Producer Prices |
| 17-Sep | 1200 | --- | BOE Rate Decision |
| 18-Sep | 0700 | Aug | Retail Sales |
| 18-Sep | 1200 | --- | BOE Market Participants Survey |
| 18-Sep | - | --- | BOE MPG Agenda Published |
| 22-Sep | 0700 | Aug | Public Sector Finances |
| 22-Sep | 1100 | Sep | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 23-Sep | 0001 | Aug | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 23-Sep | 0930 | Sep | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Sep | 1030 | --- | BOE Dhingra Panel on Monetary Policy Outlook |
| 24-Sep | 1100 | Sep | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 24-Sep | - | --- | BOE MPG Meeting |
| 24-Sep | 1430 | --- | BOE Breeden Fireside Chat at UK Macro Policy Forum |
| 24-Sep | 1500 | --- | BOE Lombardelli Speech at NBP Conference on Policy |
| 25-Sep | 0001 | Sep | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 25-Sep | - | --- | BOE MPG Minutes Released |
| 29-Sep | 0001 | Sep | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 29-Sep | 0930 | Aug | BOE Money and Credit Data |
EURUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 1.1742 High May 13
- RES 3: 1.1725 76.4% retracement of the Apr 17 - Jun 24 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.1654/1711 High Sep 9 / High Aug 20 & 21 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.1595 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.1546 @ 06:19 BST Sep 16
- SUP 1: 1.1523 Low Sep 14
- SUP 2: 1.1472 61.8% retracement of the Jun 24 - Aug 20 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.1416 76.4% retracement of the Jun 24 - Aug 20 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.1353 Low Jul 28
A bearish threat in EURUSD remains present. The pair has breached a key support at the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.1568. This strengthens a bear theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement that has opened 1.1512 initially, the Aug 13 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.1711, the Aug 20 and 21 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 1.1654, the Sep 9 high.
