EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play
- RES 4: 1.1985 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
- RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021
- RES 1: 1.1829 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.1679 @ 06:14 BST Jul 11
- SUP 1: 1.1657 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.1628 Low Jul 10
- SUP 3: 1.1590 Low Jun 25
- SUP 4: 1.1487-day EMA
EURUSD has traded lower this week. The downleg this month appears corrective and the trend condition remains bullish - moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant medium-term bull cycle. Furthermore, corrections have been shallow, reinforcing the trend condition. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb to 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Support to watch is 1.1657, the 20-day EMA.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3616 High Jun 5
- PRICE: 1.3484 @ 16:13 BST Jun 11
- SUP 1: 1.3466 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3335/3306 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
- SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
Trend signals in GBPUSD remain bullish and the latest pullback appears to be corrective. A fresh cycle high last week, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support at 1.3466, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. A clear break of it would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3306.
BOBL TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 119.790 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 118.600 High Apr 22
- RES 2: 118.300 High May 7
- RES 1: 118.280 High Jun 3 / 5
- PRICE: 117.820 @ 05:39 BST Jun 11
- SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5
- SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27
Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and the sharp pullback on May 5 - for now - still appears corrective. The recovery since mid May highlights a reversal and the end of a correction in April and May. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a move towards 118.300, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 118.790, the Apr 7 high. Support to monitor is 117.470, the May 21 low. The bull trigger is 118.280, Jun 3 / 5 high.
JGBS: MoF: Buyback Unrealistic, RTRS Poll: BoJ On Hold This Year
JGB futures are stronger and near session highs, +15 compared to settlement levels
- BBG notes: " Buying back of super-long government bonds from July is unrealistic and not envisioned, an official from Japan's Ministry of Finance said in an email to Bloomberg News."
- Reuters Poll Summary – Bank of Japan Outlook: 52% of economists expect the BOJ to hold its key interest rate at 0.50% through year-end, up from 48% in May; 55% expect the BOJ to slow bond purchases starting April 2026, while 45% see no change;78% forecast a rate hike to at least 0.75% by end-Q1 2026; and 75% expect a reduction in super-long JGB issuance, while 25% see it unchanged.
- Cash US tsys are little changed in today's Asia-Pac session ahead of today's CPI data.
- Earlier US-China trade talk headlines from London had little impact on the markets.
- Cash JGBs are slightly mixed across benchmarks, with a mild steepening bias. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.2bps lower at 1.466%.
- Swap rates are flat to 2bps lower. Swap spreads are tighter.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see BSI Industry Survey, Weekly International Investment Flows and Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies data alongside an auction for Enhanced-Liquidity of 15.5 - 39-year JGBs.
