EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.3800 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.3757 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 1.3681 1.500 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 1.3616 High Jun 5    
• PRICE: 1.3484 @ 16:13 BST Jun 11
• SUP 1: 1.3466 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3335/3306 Low May 20 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14

Trend signals in GBPUSD remain bullish and the latest pullback appears to be corrective. A fresh cycle high last week, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens 1.3681 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support at 1.3466, the 20-day EMA, has been breached. A clear break of it would suggest potential for a deeper correction and expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3306.

• RES 4: 119.790 High Apr 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 118.600 High Apr 22           
• RES 2: 118.300 High May 7  
• RES 1: 118.280 High Jun 3 / 5   
• PRICE: 117.820 @ 05:39 BST Jun 11  
• SUP 1: 117.530 Low Jun 5 
• SUP 2: 117.470 Low May 21 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: 117.470 Low May 21
• SUP 4: 116.660 Low Mar 27       

Bobl futures remain in a bull cycle and the sharp pullback on May 5 - for now - still appears corrective. The recovery since mid May highlights a reversal and the end of a correction in April and May. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a move towards 118.300, the May 7 high. Further out, scope would be for an extension towards 118.790, the Apr 7 high. Support to monitor is 117.470, the May 21 low. The bull trigger is 118.280, Jun 3 / 5 high.

JGB futures are stronger and near session highs, +15 compared to settlement levels

• BBG notes: " Buying back of super-long government bonds from July is unrealistic and not envisioned, an official from Japan's Ministry of Finance said in an email to Bloomberg News."
• Reuters Poll Summary – Bank of Japan Outlook: 52% of economists expect the BOJ to hold its key interest rate at 0.50% through year-end, up from 48% in May; 55% expect the BOJ to slow bond purchases starting April 2026, while 45% see no change;78% forecast a rate hike to at least 0.75% by end-Q1 2026; and 75% expect a reduction in super-long JGB issuance, while 25% see it unchanged.
• Cash US tsys are little changed in today's Asia-Pac session ahead of today's CPI data.
• Earlier US-China trade talk headlines from London had little impact on the markets.
• Cash JGBs are slightly mixed across benchmarks, with a mild steepening bias. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.2bps lower at 1.466%.
• Swap rates are flat to 2bps lower. Swap spreads are tighter.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see BSI Industry Survey, Weekly International Investment Flows and Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies data alongside an auction for Enhanced-Liquidity of 15.5 - 39-year JGBs.