AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 0.6865 High Feb 22
- RES 3: 0.6824 High Feb 24
- RES 2: 0.6784/87 High Mar 1 and a key resistance / 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6748 High Mar 7
- PRICE: 0.6696 @ 16:43 GMT Mar 17
- SUP 1: 0.6590/47 Low Mar 15 / 61.8% of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
- SUP 2: 0.6500 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6425 2.00 projection of the Feb 2 - 6 - 14 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6403 76.4% retracement of the Oct - Feb bull cycle
The AUDUSD trend condition remains bearish despite the recent recovery - a shallow correction. The Mar 7 sell-off reinforced a bearish theme. The break lower maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and price has breached key support at 0.6629, the Dec 20 low. This signals potential for weakness towards 0.6547, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.6784, the Mar 1 high.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Nears Support
- RES 4: 0.7245 2.00 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 3: 0.7202 High Jun 9
- RES 2: 0.7172 1.764 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 13 - Dec 20 price swing
- RES 1: 0.7082/0.7158 High Feb 3 / 2 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.6876 @ 15:54 GMT Feb 15
- SUP 1: 0.6856 Low Feb 6
- SUP 2: 0.6781 38.2% retracement of the Oct 13 - Feb 2 uptrend
- SUP 3: 0.6755 Trendline support drawn from the Oct 13 low
- SUP 4: 0.6688 Low Jan 3
AUDUSD trended lower through Wednesday and well into the close. This puts prices within range of first support at 0.6856, a break below which would expose 0.6781 and below. The broader uptrend remains intact for now, and the recent move lower highlights a correction that is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Key resistance and the bull trigger have been defined at 0.7158, the Feb 2 high. A break would resume the uptrend.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Core PCE On Track To See Rare Outpacing Of CPI In Jan
- Factoring in the various nuances to the CPI report (not least including how components of medical services are treated), JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley pencil in core PCE estimates of 0.44 and 0.48% M/M respectively after 0.30% in Dec, as usual to be updated after additional source data with the PPI release (Feb 16 PPI, Feb 24 PCE).
- That would be an unusual month with core PCE exceeding CPI, touching its equal fastest pace since September.
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Nasdaq Pulling Higher Late
Stocks remain mixed in late afternoon trade, Nasdaq shares outperforming. SPX eminis currently trading -1.75 (0.04%) at 4141.25; DJIA -53.5 (-0.16%) at 34001.93; Nasdaq +74.5 (0.6%) at 11997.31..
- SPX leading/lagging sectors: Energy continues to underperform (-2.15%) weighed by O&G, Equipment and services names (DVN -11.01%, OXY -5.16%, MRO -4.55%). Next up: Health Care (-0.56%) and Consumer Staples (-0.35%) sectors, pharmaceuticals and bio-techs weighing on the former (BIIB -3.83%, PKI).
- Leaders: Communication Services (+0.91%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.73%) followed by Utilities (+0.30%). Media and entertainment shares underpinned the former (PARA +9.00%, TTWO 3.0%, WBD +2.92%).
- Dow Industrials Leaders/Laggers: Caterpillar (CAT) +3.60 at 247.96, Apple (AAPL) +1.96 at 155.16, Goldman Sachs (GS) +1.58 at 373.3.6 Laggers: Microsoft (MSFT) -4.10 at 268.07, Chevron (CVX) -3.35 at 168.95, United Health (UNH) -4.02 at 488.81.
- Earnings after the close: Republic Services (RSG $1.02 est), Energy Transfer (ET $0.38 est), Invitation Homes (INVH $0.41 est), Cisco (CSCO $0.85 est), Synopsys (SNPS $2.51 est), Roku (ROKU -$1.74 est), CF Ind (CF $4.23 est), Marathon Oil (MRO $0.84 est), Equinix (EQIX $4.81 est), American Int Group (AIG $1.26 est), Albemarle (ALB $8.19 est), Welltower (WELL $0.82 est)
