USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 1.4292 61.8% Retracement Feb’25 - Jan’26 downleg
• RES 3: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Mar 9 - 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4248 High Jun 24, 25 and 30 and the bull trigger  
• RES 1: 1.4190 High Jul 9  
• PRICE: 1.4107 @ 19:03 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.4032/4003 50-day EMA / Low Jul 20
• SUP 2: 1.3981 38.2% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle  
• SUP 3: 1.3951 Low Jun 15
• SUP 4: 1.3899 50.0% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle 

The USDCAD trend structure remains bullish and the bear cycle since Jun 24 is considered corrective. Attention is on the next important support at 1.4032, the 50-day EMA. The average has been pierced, however, it remains intact and the latest recovery is encouraging for bulls. A clear break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper corrective retracement. The bull trigger is at 1.4248, the Jun 24, 25 and 30 high.

• US Treasuries look to finish firmer - but off midday highs after Iran officials denied claims by Pres Trump earlier in the day that negotiations between the two was proceeding. Tsy yields tracked lower crude prices (10Y yield -.0465 at 4.6022%), WTI -3.71 at $78.90/bbl.
• Sentiment improved briefly after JMIC report: Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained at reduced levels. Independent tracking data indicated suppression with zero tankers in either direction. Subsequent short windows showed single-digit daily crossings, concentrated almost exclusively on the northern Iranian-controlled corridor; however, U.S. facilitated transits continued with a marginal increase since the last report.
• Mixed data: The advance goods trade deficit came in at $101.5bn (cons $100bn) in June after a marginally upward revised $105.9bn in May. It left a goods deficit at 3.6% GDP in Q2 after 3.1% in Q1 and 3.2% in 4Q25 but is still notably smaller than the 4.5% GDP seen in 4Q25 ahead of the Trump administration’s tariff policy push in early 2025.
• ADP private employment increased an average 15k per week in the four weeks to Jul 11 after 16.25k up to Jul 4, extending the moderation since the high for the weekly series of 40.75k back in early May.
• The Conference Board consumer survey continued to show signs of consumer pessimism on the state of the labor market in July, with the jobs plentiful to jobs hard to get differential slipping to technically a new recent low albeit slightly higher than where it was first reported for June initially.
• Look ahead: Australian CPI, German import prices and BOC minutes precede tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision and press conference.

• RES 3: 133.32 - High Mar ‘26
• RES 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 21 
• RES 1: 127.93/42- 50-dma (cont) / High Jun 15 
• PRICE: 127.34 @ 18:26 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 126.27 - Low May 20 and a key support 
• SUP 2: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999
• SUP 3: 121.49 - 50.0% retrace of the 1990 - 2020 major bull leg 

JGB futures have pulled back from their recent highs. A bearish theme remains intact. A stronger resumption of weakness would expose 126.27, the May 20 low, where a break would confirm a continuation of the primary downtrend. Key near-term resistance is 128.42, the Jun 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle would instead signal a short-term reversal and highlight a potential break of the 50-dma - at 127.93.