European curves bull flattened Tuesday.
- There was no clear headline driver of a strong overnight rally whose gains were held through most of the session. Attribution was largely placed on anticipation of the April 2 tariff announcement by US President Trump, though equities remained bid through much of the day and periphery EGBs outperformed.
- Weak-leaning US data toward the cash close (including a contractionary ISM Manufacturing index) saw Bunds and Gilts near session highs again before fading those gains slightly.
- March Eurozone flash inflation and manufacturing PMIs for Italy and Spain came slightly below consensus, though Eurozone labour market readings were solid.
- On the day, Bunds outperformed Gilts, with bull flattening in both curves. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads tightened.
- Wednesday's calendar highlight is US President Trump's highly anticipated tariff announcement (2100BST, well after the European cash close), while we also get some Spanish labour market data and hear from multiple ECB speakers including Schnabel.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.5bps at 2.022%, 5-Yr is down 3.5bps at 2.304%, 10-Yr is down 5.1bps at 2.687%, and 30-Yr is down 6bps at 3.03%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.2bps at 4.174%, 5-Yr is down 3bps at 4.254%, 10-Yr is down 4.1bps at 4.634%, and 30-Yr is down 3.5bps at 5.247%.
- Italian BTP spread down 2.7bps at 110.2bps / French OAT down 0.9bps at 71.6bps