FRANCE DATA: [CORRECT] Energy Leads PPI Acceleration But Other Costs Also Firmer

Headlines via Reuters:

• "EARTHQUAKE HITS JAPAN'S KYUSHU - NIED"
• "JAPAN EARTHQUAKE HAS PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.1 - NIED"
• "JAPAN EARTHQUAKE MAY HAVE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 7 ON JAPAN 1-7 SCALE IN KUMAMOTO PREFECTURE - NIED"
• "TSUNAMI WARNING OF 1 METRE ISSUED AFTER JAPAN EARTHQUAKE - NHK"

INSEE's consumer confidence indicator rose 2.1pts to 86.4 in July (85 cons), after 84.3 June (revised +0.3pts). The increase was broad-based, with generally stronger rises in forward-looking components. Despite the continued recovery in confidence, the indicator is still below the pre-conflict 91.6 in February. Price expectations notably saw another large drop, returning to just below pre-conflict levels and around the long-term average - although the survey window puts question marks over how much weight to place on this.

• Data were collected between 25 June - 20 July, and INSEE notes most responses are received during the first two weeks of the survey (up to 9 July here) - so likely doesn't fully account for the latest reescalation in the Middle East.
• The view on consumer price expectations (not included in the headline index) in the next year fell a notable -17.7pts to -33.2, the lowest since June 2025, and fully reversing the move since the Iran conflict (we were at -31.2 in February). The month-on-month drop here is the largest since April 2023. The view on prices in the past year continued a comparatively steadier recovery, but remains well above the pre-conflict level.
• The increase in the headline index was broad-based, with forward-looking components generally seeing larger increases: the view on the general economic situation in the next year saw a second rise (+5.7pts to -58.8), recovering steadily towards the pre-conflict -53.3 in February. Personal financial situation in the next year, meanwhile, improved 2.2pts to -13.5 - around the long-term average but still some way below February's -6.9.
• Unemployment expectations almost entirely unwound the prior sharp rise, easing 5.9pts from June's high (which was the highest since March 2021), now at 54.7. Note that in INSEE's business confidence indicator: expected employment index was steady in July at 98.2 (vs 98.3 prior), still above year-to-date lows of 94.6 seen in May.
• As for backward-looking components, the general economic situation in the past year rose 1.9pts to a still historically weak -78.8, while personal financial situation in the past year saw a second rise (+1.5pts to -26.3, a touch below the long-term average).

• RES 4: $89.374 - High May 13 
• RES 3: $78.898 - High May 19
• RES 2: $71.555 - High Jun 17 
• RES 1: $60.927/63.937 High Jul 22 / 50-day EMA         
• PRICE: $57.483 @ 08:24 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: $54.778 - Low Jul 17
• SUP 2: $52.577 - 1.000 proj of the Mar 2 - 23 - May 13 price swing  
• SUP 3: $50.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $48.644 - Low Nov 21 ‘25 

The trend theme in Silver remains bearish and a fresh cycle low on Jul 17, reinforces a bear theme. Recently, a key support at $61.007, the Mar 23 low and a bear trigger, was cleared. The break highlights an important bearish development and confirms a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Sights are on $52.577, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is seen at $63.937, the 50-day EMA. Gains are considered corrective.