PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance Update: OPEC Fund, CDC Join List

Jan-22 14:00
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 01/22 $1.5B OPEC Fund 3Y SOFR+64
  • 01/22 $1.25B CDC 3Y SOFR+57a
  • 01/22 $500M FMO +3Y +35
  • 01/22 $Benchmark Penske 5Y +110a
  • 01/22 $Benchmark KDB 3Y SOFR+58a, 5Y SOFR+77a
  • 01/22 $Benchmark Blackstone Private Cr Fund 7Y +195a
  • 01/22 $Benchmark Bank of Montreal 4NC3 +90a, 4NC3 SOFR
  • 01/22 $Benchmark PNC Financial 6NC5 +100a, 11NC10 +150a

Historical bullets

STIR: Fed Pricing Unmoved By Durable Goods

Dec-23 13:56

Fed pricing essentially unmoved by the softer-than-expected durable goods data, with markets remaining very much geared towards the inflation and employment outlooks after last week’s hawkish Fed cut.

  • Fed funds futures price 38bp of cuts through ’25, with the next 25bp move not fully discounted until June (~13bp priced through the March meeting and ~18bp showing through the May meeting).
  • Our macro team highlights strike action as a likely headwind for the headline durable goods prints, with the core readings more upbeat.

US DATA: Volatile Aircraft Orders Cloud Improving Core Durable Trends

Dec-23 13:55

Indicators of durable goods activity were mixed in the November preliminary report, with headline figures disappointing amid upward revisions to prior data, and core indices beating expectations.

  • On the headline durable goods orders figure of -1.1% M/M, the "miss" vs -0.3% expected was offset by an upward revision to the prior growth reading to 0.8% from 0.3%. Transportation equipment - a typically volatile category - led the decline, falling -2.9% M/M, with nondefense aircraft/parts down 7.0%.
  • For perspective, the previous 6 months of % M/M nondefense aircraft orders starting in June were: -126.9%, -663.8%, -19.7%, -16.6%, 16.4%, and  -7.0%.
  • While durables ex-transportation orders likewise missed (-0.1% vs +00.3% expected, 0.2% prior unrevised), there were notable gains in core capital goods data for which orders rose 0.7% (0.1% expected, -0.1% prior upward rev 0.1pp) and shipments were up 0.5% (0.2% expected, 0.4% prior also rev up 0.1pp).
  • Cutting through the monthly noise, we are beginning to see some more encouraging signs of bottoming out in durable goods, alongside the stabilization in industry surveys (albet at weak levels).
  • We note especially the 3M/3M annualized rates of growth in both core orders (2.1%, fastest in 20 months) and shipments (0.7%, the first positive reading for 8 months).
  • While various uncertainties lurk for the coming year, including potential tariffs and disruptions to supply chains, the signs for equipment / durables investment are looking slightly brighter in the underlying data as 2024 comes to a close.

 

durablegoodsetc

US TSYS: Post-Durables/Cap Goods React

Dec-23 13:35
  • Treasury futures holding modestly weaker levels, off lows after mixed goods data: Durables lower than expected, Cap Goods little higher with modest up-revision to prior.
  • The Mar'25 10Y contract trades -5.5 at 108-25.5, still above initial technical support at 108-16.5 (Dec 19 low). 10Y yld +.0261 at 4.5483%.
  • Next data: New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence at 1000ET, not to mention spate of Tsy supply that kicks off at 1000ET with $81B 13W & $72B 26W bills.