US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Core PCE Estimates Ease To 0.25% M/M For July
Aug-13 09:56
- Yesterday’s CPI report has seen core PCE estimates for July center on 0.25% M/M (across eight analysts) vs a tentative 0.31% M/M prior to CPI (across five analysts).
- It implies a very similar pace to the 0.26% M/M in latest data for June and would see the Y/Y firm to 2.87% for its fastest since February.
- There’s a relatively narrow range of 0.22-0.28% considering PPI is still to come tomorrow.
- Wells Fargo: 0.22%
- JPM: 0.24%
- Nomura: 0.24% (vs 0.33 pre-CPI)
- NWM: 0.24%
- TDS: 0.25%
- UBS: 0.25% (vs 0.33 pre-CPI)
- GS: 0.26% (vs 0.31 pre-CPI)
- BofA: 0.28%
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bull Cycle Remains Intact
Jul-14 09:51
- In the equity space, the trend condition in {US} S&P E-Minis remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This was followed by a break of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a 1.236 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6054.38. First support lies at 3201.21, the 20-day EMA.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded higher last week as the contract extended the recovery that started Jun 23. This exposed key resistance and the bull trigger at 5486.00, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would confirm a resumption of the medium-term bull cycle that began Apr 7 and open the 5500.00 handle. Price has pulled back from its recent highs - a correction. Support to watch lies at 5281.00, the low on Jul 1 and 4.
EU-BOND AUCTION RESULTS: 3/9/30-year EU-bonds
Jul-14 09:47
| Coupon | 2.625% | 3.25% | 3.375% |
| Maturity | Jul-28 | Jul-34 | Oct-54 |
| Instrument | EU-bond | EU-bond | EU-bond |
| ISIN | EU000A4D5QM6 | EU000A3K4D41 | EU000A3K4EY2 |
| Amount | E1.798bln | E1.774bln | E945mln |
| Previous | E2.127bln | E1.19bln | E5bln |
| Avg yield | 2.186% | 3.035% | 3.983% |
| Previous | 2.142% | 3.007% | 3.664% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.59x | 1.39x | 1.67x |
| Previous | 1.26x | 1.34x | |
| Avg Price | 101.247 | 101.664 | 89.596 |
| Low Price | 101.2300 | 101.5900 | 89.5400 |
| Pre-auction mid | 101.212 | 101.597 | 89.367 |
| Prev avg price | 101.426 | 101.907 | 94.808 |
| Prev low price | 101.420 | 101.890 | |
| Prev mid-price | 101.401 | 101.822 | |
| Previous date | 02-Jun-25 | 19-May-25 | 14-Jan-25 |
SONIA OPTIONS: SFIZ5 96.25/96.05/95.85 Put Fly Lifted
Jul-14 09:36
SFIZ5 96.25/96.05/95.85 put fly paper paid 3.25 on 5.5K.
