FED: Context For Today's Five Fed Speakers

May-29 10:39

The majority of today's Fed speakers have spoken recently, although of course these will be the first comments post the court ruling. We would ordinarily have put most focus on Kugler and Logan but the former only gives opening remarks and the latter is comfortably after the close.  

  • 0830ET – Barkin (non-voter) in a fireside chat (just Q&A). He said May 27 that people are being patient on investment decisions and waiting out policy uncertainty whilst there is no evidence that the drop in sentiment is affecting spending.
  • 1040ET – Goolsbee (’25 voter, dove) in moderated Q&A (text tbd + Q&A). On May 23 he reiterated that the bar to move rates in any direction is higher but that rate cuts were still possible over a 10-16 month horizon.
  • 1400ET – Kugler (permanent voter) opening remarks (just text). She said May 12 that it’s critical to keep long-term inflation expectations anchored but also that short-term expectations matter as they affect wage demand. Talking specifically on the tariff pause announced between the US-China on that day, it changes the magnitude that the Fed might use its tools but not the direction.
  • 1600ET – Daly (non-voter) fireside chat (just Q&A). She noted in limited remarks on May 21 that policy is in a good place and that she’s highly sensitive to the risk of inflation. She’d previously said May 14 that the uncertainty shock from US government policy is not yet causing a demand shock.
  • 1825ET – Logan (’26 voter) opening remarks and discussion (text + Q&A). She has recently focused on focused on market functioning, saying on May 19 that treasury and money markets are strong but not invulnerable. She previously talked on mon pol back on Apr 10. 

Historical bullets

EUROZONE DATA: Few Bright Spots In The EC's April Survey

Apr-29 10:30

The EC’s sentiment index slipped to 93.6 in April, below the 94.5 consensus and 95.0 prior for the lowest since October 2023. The results underscore ECB Governing Council concerns around the growth outlook, with few positive signals across the business and consumer sides of the survey.

  • Both industry (-11.2 vs 10.4 cons, -10.7 prior) and services (1.4 vs 2.2 cons, 2.2 prior) were weaker than expected.
  • Within the industry survey, the expected production component was 0.0, its weakest level YTD. There were no obvious signs of tariff front-running in the export orders component.
  • The retail confidence reading also softened to -8.9 (vs -7.0 prior). The future business activity component fell for a fourth consecutive month.
  • The expected employment indicator was steady at 96.5, the weakest since February 2021. Meanwhile, expected price metrics ticked up modestly across industries.
  • Consumer confidence was confirmed at -16.7 (vs -14.5 prior). All of the forward-looking components (financial situation, economic situation, unemployment expectations, capacity to save and major purchase intentions) weakened in April. 
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Inventories, House Prices, JOLTS Job Openings

Apr-29 10:27
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 29-Apr 0830 Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$147.8B rev, -$145.0B)
  • 29-Apr 0830 Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.3%, 0.6%), Retail MoM (0.1%, 0.3%)
  • 29-Apr 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.2%, 0.3%)
  • 29-Apr 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.46%, 0.40%)
  • 29-Apr 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (7.568M, 7.5M), Rate (4.5%, 4.5%)
  • 29-Apr 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (92.9, 88.0)
  • 29-Apr 1030 Dallas Fed Services Activity (-11.3, --)
  • 29-Apr 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction

EGB SYNDICATION: 3.00% Jun-49 Green OAT: Final terms

Apr-29 10:26
  • Spread set earlier at 3.00% Jul-49 OAT + 13bps (guidance was +15bp area)
  • Size: E5bln (MNI expects E4-8bln)
  • Books in excess of E74bln (inc JLM interest)
  • Settlement: May 7, 2025 (T+5)
  • Bookrunners: Barclays, BNPP (B&D), BofA, CA-CIB, HSBC, Natixis
  • Timing: MNI expects to price today

Source: Bloomberg and MNI colour