POLAND: Constitutional Tribunal Postpones Ruling On EU Penalties Until December 5

• RES 4: 0.8875 High Apr 25 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8835 High May 3
• RES 2: 0.8793 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Aug 23 downleg
• RES 1: 0.8768 High May 5
• PRICE: 0.8743 @ 10:22 GMT Oct 31
• SUP 1: 0.8722/8685 Intraday low / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8653/16 50-day EMA / Low Oct 11 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8569 Low Sep 15 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.8558 Low Sep 11

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is trading higher today. Price has breached resistance at 0.8741, the Oct 20 high, to confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started Aug 23. The break higher signals scope for an extension towards 0.8793, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8685, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this average would signal the start of a corrective cycle.

Eurozone flash inflation for October printed in line with MNI's nowcast at an unrounded +2.91% (vs +3.1% cons; +4.34% prior), the first time the headline has been below 3% since August 2021. The monthly print was +0.10% (vs +0.2% cons; +0.32% prior). Core (ex-energy/food) was +4.19% (vs +4.2% cons; +4.52% prior) and +0.24% M/M (vs +0.22% prior).

• Disinflation was seen in all major sub-components, with energy base effects playing a large role in pulling down the headline as expected.
• The core reading - coming in line with the 4.2% estimate coming into the week - was probably higher than expectations given national-level category data, making this release modestly hawkish overall given what would have been updated expectations.
• Services disinflation was moderate on a Y/Y level, at +4.59% Y/Y vs +4.72% prior but encouragingly -0.03% M/M. Last month, services were dragged down by German transport ticket effects, so the ECB will be encouraged to see no resurgence in sequential services inflation in October. We await the ECB's seasonally-adjusted series due out later today for a better indication of sequential momentum.
• At a country level, the October Y/Y prints were lower in 17/20 countries. Only Estonia, Greece and Spain saw increases vs September - and Spain's was still softer than expected. On a monthly level, 7 countries saw M/M deflation, including Germany and Portugal.