GERMAN DATA: Companies in Germany to Continue Cutting Jobs
The IFO employment indicator came in at 92.7 points in March, a 0.3 point drop from February and remaining only slightly above December's 92.5 cycle low. Across subsectors, developments were mixed, with manufacturing and services lower, but construction and trade stronger than before. Overall, "the situation on the labour market remains difficult", IFO concludes - "unemployment will probably continue to rise slightly."
- "Industry in particular is constantly shedding jobs. This trend has been going on now for almost two years, with hardly any industrial company being spared"
- "Service providers have also become more cautious in their personnel planning."
- "Although the IFO barometer has risen in the retail sector, many retailers still want to reduce their headcount."
- "The construction industry is not planning any major changes for the time being"
- For reference, the unemployment rate has been gradually trending upwards in Germany since 2022 but remains comparatively low on a historical comparison (6.2% lastly). Perhaps more worryingly, employment gains were partially negative in recent quarters, especially when looking at the private sector only.
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COMMODITIES: Fresh Short-Term Cycle Lows in WTI Futures Reinforces Bearish Theme
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move lower last week, and Monday’s fresh short-term cycle low, reinforces a bear condition. Support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen the downtrend and confirm a breach of the 50-day EMA. This would open $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low. Key S/T resistance has been defined at $74.06, Feb 3 high. A move above this level would reinstate a bull theme. A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to trade at its latest highs. Fresh cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2875.2, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude up $0.12 or +0.17% at $70.84
- Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.18% at $4.001
- Gold spot down $11.78 or -0.4% at $2940.65
- Copper down $1.2 or -0.26% at $455.1
- Silver down $0.15 or -0.46% at $32.207
- Platinum down $0.48 or -0.05% at $969.5
EQUITIES: Recent Move Lower in E-Mini S&P Considered Corrective For Now
The trend condition in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains up and last week’s climb to a new alltime high on the continuation contract, reinforces a bull theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5574.57 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch is 5387.59, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective. S&P E-Minis traded lower again, on Monday. The move down appears corrective, however, price has breached support at 6014.00, the Feb 10 low. This signals scope for a deeper retracement and has exposed a key support at 5935.50, the Feb 3 low. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode condition that suggests the trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 539.15 pts or -1.39% at 38237.79 and the TOPIX ended 11.83 pts lower or -0.43% at 2724.7.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed lower by 26.988 pts or -0.8% at 3346.04 and the HANG SENG ended 307.59 pts lower or -1.32% at 23034.02.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 38.35 pts or +0.17% at 22463.07, FTSE 100 higher by 31.4 pts or +0.36% at 8689.76, CAC 40 up 8.76 pts or +0.11% at 8097.74 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.24 pts or 0% at 5453.06.
- Dow Jones mini down 9 pts or -0.02% at 43523, S&P 500 mini down 7.25 pts or -0.12% at 5993, NASDAQ mini down 62.75 pts or -0.29% at 21354.25.
US-RUSSIA: Kremlin Talks Up Cooperation w/US, EU Enters UKR Minerals Discussion
Reuters reporting comments from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov - speaking at his daily presser. Peskov said, addressing remarks from Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday, hinting that Russia could work with US companies to mine rare-earth minerals in Ukraine: “Russia says it has its own plans to develop them but is open to cooperation.”
- Putin said, in an apparent reference to Ukraine yesterday: “Russia is one of the leading countries when it comes to rare metal reserves... as for new territories, we are also ready to attract foreign partners – there are certain reserves there too,”
- Putin's comments came after US President Donald Trump issued a statement on Truth Social claiming he is in “serious discussions” with Putin on “major Economic Development transactions”.
- The comments could undermine a White House assertion that a mineral deal with Kyiv would lead to a US commercial presence in Ukraine - serving as a non-military security assurance. Any sign of a US-Russia deal to share in Ukraine’s resource wealth is likely to imperil talks to end the war.
- Peskov reiterated that Russia considers European peacekeepers in Ukraine “unacceptable”, after Trump affirmed yesterday that he supports a European peacekeeping operation: “I think that will be a very good day, when we can go in as peacekeepers as opposed to what's going on right now…”
- Peskov noted US opposition to a UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, positing that the “European stance on Ukraine may become more balanced as a result of contacts with the US.”
- Yesterday, the EU submitted a competing mineral deal to Ukraine, pitched by Europe's Commissioner for Industrial Strategy Stéphane Séjourné as a "win-win partnership".
