EM LATAM CREDIT: Colombia: New EUR 3,7, 10s Guidance
(COLOM; Baa3/BBneg/BB+neg)
"GUIDANCE: Colombia €Bmark 3Y, 7Y, Long 10Y Bonds" - Bbg
EUR Benchmark 3Y Fixed (Sept. 19, 2028) 3.875%-4%
EUR Benchmark 7Y Fixed (Sept. 19, 2032) 5.25%-5.375%
EUR Benchmark Long 10Y Fixed (Feb. 19, 2036) 5.875%-6%
IPTs 3Y: 4.25%A
FV 3Y: MS+165bpA / 3.8%A
IPTs 7Y: 5.625%A
FV 7Y: MS+275bpA / 5.2%
IPTs Long 10Y: 6.25%A /
FV Long 10Y: MS+350bpA / 6.05%A
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SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer tomorrow
Tesoro Publico has announced it will be looking to sell a combined E2.0-3.0bln of the following at its auction tomorrow, August 12:
- the 3-month Nov 7, 2025 letras
- the 9-month May 8, 2026 letras
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Holds Ground
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5
- PRICE: 111-29 @ 12:45 BST Aug 11
- SUP 1: 110-19+/08+ Low Jul 24 / Low Jul 14 & 16
- SUP 2: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
- SUP 4: 109.25 Low May 27
Treasury futures remain strong on the back of the post-NFP rally - barring an erratic and quickly reversed intraday slip on Wednesday. Having cleared resistance into the bull trigger at 112-12+, the Jul 1 high, Treasuries have opened the May 1 high for direction at 112-23, a multi-month high. Clearance here opens retracement levels layered between 113-07 and 113-23. On the downside, key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. First support lies at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low.
NOK: G10 Outperformance Persists Since Morning CPI Release
NOK outperformance against the G10 basket has persisted through the morning, helping EURNOK push through initial support at 11.9326 (23.6% retracement of the upleg off the late July low). This exposes the 20-day (11.8618) and 50-day (11.7945) EMAs on the downside, with key support and the bear trigger defined at the 11.7460 July 30 low.
- The slightly stronger-than-expected July inflation report set the tone for NOK this morning. Although CPI-ATE inflation was actually in line with Norges Bank’s June MPR projections at 3.1% Y/Y, measures of inflation momentum suggest underlying price pressures remain a little persistent.
- This should push back against the need for firmer guidance towards a September cut at Thursday’s Norges Bank decision.
- Brent crude and natural gas futures have inched higher through the morning, potentially providing background support to NOK. The energy complex is being dominated by speculation ahead of Friday's Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska.
- NOKSEK is now up 0.75% on the session, with SEK also pressured by subdued European equity performance. That brings the cross back above prior support at 0.9329 (June 26 low). Initial resistance is the August 7 high at 0.9454.
