OIL PRODUCTS: China’s Weak Diesel Demand Squeezing Oil Outlook: Reuters

Aug-02 2024 16:12

China’s falling diesel consumption is weighing on domestic fuel demand, Reuters said.

  • The growth of LNG-powered trucks and sluggish economic activity are cutting the appetite for diesel.
  • In a Reuters survey, four of five analysts told Reuters that they expected H2 diesel demand to fall between 2-7% annually to between 3.81m-4.67m b/d.
  • Gasoline and diesel make up 40% of China’s oil demand, but LNG trucks are eroding their use and with growing EV uptake, transport fuels are nearing their peak.
  • FGE forecasts LNG trucks will displace 110k b/d of diesel demand in 2024 and 120k b/d in 2025.
  • Gasoline demand is expected to growth 1.2% in China in H2 to 3.45m b/d, Rystad said.
  • Jet fuel is the main growth driver, likely rising by 8-15% this year – around 870k-1.04m b/d.

Historical bullets

CANADA: 5Y Auction: Lowest Bid-to-Cover Since January

Jul-03 2024 16:05
  • Canada sells $5B of the 3.5% Sep-2029 at an average yield of 3.535 and bid-to-cover of 2.285x.
  • It’s the lowest bid-to-cover for a 5Y since January, following the 2.35x in June and a five-auction average of 2.40x, but nothing like last week’s 2Y showing the lowest since 2009.
  • The Can-US 5Y differential has dipped ~0.5bp since shortly before the auction, still +1.5bp on the day at -78.2bps.

US TSYS: US TSY TO SELL $46.000 BLN 52W BILL JUL 09, SETTLE JUL 11

Jul-03 2024 16:05
  • US TSY TO SELL $46.000 BLN 52W BILL JUL 09, SETTLE JUL 11

US TSYS: US TSY TO SELL $22.000 BLN 29Y-10M BOND JUL 11, SETTLE JUL 15

Jul-03 2024 16:05
  • US TSY TO SELL $22.000 BLN 29Y-10M BOND JUL 11, SETTLE JUL 15